Daily Market Outlook, February 3, 2023

  • Trifecta of Tech Disappointment Weighs On Risk Sentiment Ahead of NFP’s

  • Asian equity markets took their lead from a late day slide on Wall Street as gains were conceded into the close of trade, although US markets ultimately posted solid returns on the day, they finished well off their best levels and have continued to retreat overnight with US Nasdaq futures leading the way lower with losses circa 2%, the decline in the Nasdaq is being driven by a trifecta of earnings disappointment from Apple, Amazon and Alphabet who all missed on top and bottom line numbers with shares cratering 3-5% post market, with all of the tech darlings reporting  gloomy outlooks for the foreseeable fiscal outlook .

  • European investors will eye services PMI’s for January, for more clues regarding the inflationary outlook in the region, especially after ECB Chief Lagarde’s hawkish posture in yesterday press conference after the central bank increased rates by a further 50bps, with Lagarde prepping market participants for a further 50bps move at the next meeting. The BoE also raised rates for the eleventh consecutive time, however, the Governor singalled a slight degree of dovishness developing amongst the MPC, although as always they remain data dependent and the Governor was specific in referencing ongoing economic uncertainty.

  • In the US, investors will parse today’s jobs report, markets expect a further modest increase in the January unemployment rate, while a Reuters poll of economists expects  the US to have added 185k jobs during the January survey period, with the unemployment rate nudging up to 3.6%. Recent survey data has implied a thawing in wage pressures, further confirmation of this in the January data will encourage investors to continue to price a higher degree of dovishness from the Federal Reserve, any upside surprise in this aspect of the report would be a concern to this the dovish thesis, leading to repricing of Fed hawkishness in the US forward rate curve.

  • Markets-wise, investors are digesting the tepid tech results and the central bank announcements and posturing, in all it feels like the bullish enthusiasm post the FOMC is being curtailed by the reality of  the potential for an earnings led recession in the US, the weekly close on US benchmarks is really going to be key to informing the potential for a continuation in the rally or the beginning of a sustained period of buyers remorse with investors booking profits into the weekend and paring risk exposure, the likely outcome is that risk remains supported ahead of the VIX expiration into the middle of the month combined with the next US major data input CPI, after this with few catalysts and the majority of earnings releases in the rearview mirror, investors may reassess into the ides of March a notoriously volatile period!

FX Options Expiring At Today’s New York Cut

  • EURUSD 1.0950 (763mln), 1.1000 (475mln)

  • USDCAD 1.2800 (2.3bln)

Overnight News of Note

  • Apple, Alphabet And Amazon Hurt As Economic Slump Crimps Demand

  • US Stock Futures Slump, Asian Equities Struggle As Tech Weighs

  • Qualcomm Gives Lackluster Forecast; New Markets Show Promise

  • China Jan Services Activity Expands For First Time In Five Months

  • Boarders Between China, Hong Kong To Reopen From Monday

  • Kuroda: BoJ Paper Loss From Bond Holdings Was ¥8.8T At End 22’

  • Japan Jan Services Activity Growth At Three-Month High

  • Mortgage Rates In The US Slip For A Fourth Week, Hitting 6.09%

  • Dollar Climbs As Central Banks See Inflation Risks Unwind

  • Bonds Surge As Traders Call Time On Central Bank Rate Hikes

  • Oil Set For Weekly Loss As China Optimism Dims, Stockpiles Swell

  • Stock Buybacks Hit $132 Billion As Companies Snub All Warnings

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 4095

  • Primary support is 3990

  • Primary objective is 4384

  • Below 3980 opens 3910/00

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0850

  • Primary support  is 1.0750

  • Primary objective is 1.11

  • Below 1.0730 opens 1.0610

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.21

  • Primary support  is 1.21

  • Primary objective 1.2460

  • Below 1.2100 opens 1.2040

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50

  • Primary resistance is 132.30

  • Primary objective is 125.00

  • Above 133.00 opens 135.00

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7050

  • Primary support is .6940

  • Primary objective is .7250

  • Below .6930 opens .6870

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day bullish VWAP

BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 23000

  • Primary support 21500

  • Primary objective is 25000

  • Below 21000 opens 20300

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish