The USD continues to strengthen against the yen amid stabilising US inflation, with the USDJPY pair trading around 155.00. Find out more in our analysis for 24 February 2026.
USDJPY forecast: key takeaways
- US CB Consumer Confidence Index: previously at 84.5, projected at 87.4
- The yen continues to lose ground against the USD
- USDJPY forecast for 24 February 2026: 156.55
Fundamental analysis
The outlook for 24 February 2026 remains optimistic for the USD. After a pullback, the USDJPY rate is forming an upward wave and may continue to rise. The pair is currently trading near 155.00.
Key drivers influencing the USDJPY rate:
- Continued growth in the US service sector is expected, providing additional support for the dollar and maintaining positive market sentiment
- Japan’s CPI remains under pressure, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan may take measures to stimulate the economy, which in turn weighs on the yen
- With US inflation stabilising, the Federal Reserve may continue its moderate monetary policy to support the USD
- Japan is shifting towards monetary easing, contributing to yen weakness
- The US CB Consumer Confidence Index is projected to rise to 87.4 from 84.5. An increase would signal stronger consumer confidence in the economic outlook
Inflation in Japan continues to decline, prompting the BoJ to keep interest rates unchanged in the near term.
Technical outlook
On the H4 chart, the USDJPY pair has formed an Engulfing reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger Band and is trading around 155.00. At this stage, the pair may continue its upward momentum as the pattern plays out, with the next target at 156.55.
At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario, in which quotes correct towards 154.20 before rising higher.
USDJPY overview
- Asset: USDJPY
- Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
- Trend: bullish
- Key resistance levels: 156.55 and 157.50
- Key support levels: 154.20 and 153.50
USDJPY trading scenarios for today
Main scenario (Buy Stop)
A breakout above 156.55 may create conditions for opening long positions and increase pressure on the yen. The risk-to-reward ratio exceeds 1:2. The upside potential is about 95 pips with a risk of around 35 pips.
- Take Profit: 157.50
- Stop Loss: 156.20
Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)
The bearish scenario will be activated if the price breaks and consolidates below the 154.20 support level, opening the way for further decline.
- Sell Stop: 154.10
- Take Profit: 153.50
- Stop Loss: 154.40
Risk factors
Risks to the bullish USDJPY scenario include a softer Federal Reserve tone, which could weaken demand for the dollar and push the pair lower. An additional invalidation signal would be a breakout and consolidation below 154.20, indicating continued seller dominance and a renewed downward momentum.
Summary
The yen continues to lose ground amid accommodative monetary policy from the BoJ. Technical analysis suggests the USDJPY pair may rise towards 156.55.
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Source: Roboforex