Daily Market Outlook, January 26, 2023

Asian Markets Back Online & In Buoyant Spirits With Hong Kong Scaling 7 Month Highs
Asian markets are trading with a mixed tone, the standout exception is the Hong Kong market which has opened with a strong risk on posture, as the Hang Seng printed fresh seven month highs. The handover from Wall Street was mixed, however all the major indices staged significant intraday reversals from lows to close broadly unchanged on the session, overnight Tesla earnings provided support for bulls as earnings and revenues topped estimates, although margins contracted, Tesla shares were seen up 5.5% in post market trade.
With no econ data of note for European trading, investor focus shifts to the US session, where US Q4 GDP is set to be released this afternoon. Markets expect the print to confirm a second successive quarter of growth reversing declines witnessed in the first half of 2022, softness seen in some December inputs suggests that growth may be lower than previously expected, however, growth is expected to confirm a 2.2-2.6% annualised uptick quarter over quarter. The Fed is deemed to still view this as a hotter than wanted levels of activity, the policy response to this level of growth will likely see the FOMC maintain a cautious tone at the Feb 1 meeting, with markets fully pricing a 0.25bps move, any upside surprise to the data would like see markets rapidly repricing a 50bps move, the data comes during the Fed black out period so markets wont get any response from Fed officials.
Other US data of note comes in the form of weekly jobless claims, expected show a small uptick, signalling slight softness in the employment outlook, another round of housing data is expected to confirm continued pressure in the sector with new homes sales believed to cool further in December dropping from 640k to 617k
Markets-wise, European bourses have opened on the front foot, buoyed by Tesla earnings and the upbeat outlook provided by Tesla CEO Musk, robust earnings out of STMicroelectronics were well received, helping cement the constructive opening to European trade with the FTSE & Eurostoxx in the green. US equity futures are also in positive territory as the Dollar remains pressured below the 102 level, supporting EUR and GBP. Crude continues to cling to the $80 handle with Gold closing on the 1950 target.

Overnight News of Note

Bitcoin Tops $23.7K In Wednesday Comeback – CoinDesk
Asian Shares Scale Fresh 7-Month High As Hong Kong Trade Resumes
China Stocks Rally In Hong Kong As Holiday Spending Recovers
BoJ Policymakers Divided On Wage, Inflation Outlook, Jan Opinions Shows
Fear of BOJ Turning Hawkish Spurs 94% Jump In Shorter Bond Sales
US Economic Growth Set To Have Slowed In Fourth Quarter Of 2022
Housing Demand Climbs As US Market Starts To Show Signs Of Life
US And Germany To Send Main Battle Tanks To Ukraine
BoC’s Macklem Says He Is ‘Not Even Thinking’ Of Cutting Rates
UK Business Confidence Drops To Lowest Since Financial Crisis
Dollar Near Eight-Month Low Ahead Of Central Bank Meetings
Oil Edges Higher On Outlook For Chinese Demand And Weaker Dollar
Chevron To Buy Back $75 Billion In Stock After Record Profits
Tesla Seeks To Boost Output Quickly As Profit Beats Estimates
IBM To Cut About 3,900 Workers, Still Hiring In ‘Higher Growth’ Areas
DOT Probes Southwest Airlines Scheduling After Holiday-Travel Meltdown
China Stocks Rally In Hong Kong As Holiday Spending Recovers

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)

Options Expiration For the New York Cut 10am EST

(BOLD expiries with a value of a Billion+ more magnetic if price is within the daily trading range)

USDJPY 130.00
USDCHF .9795

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish Below 3985

Primary support is 3885
Primary objective is 4065
Below 3840 opens 3800
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

EURUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0835

Primary support is 1.0750
Primary objective is 1.10
Below 1.0730 opens 1.0610
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

GBPUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2340

Primary support is 1.2180
Primary objective 1.2460
Below 1.2150 opens 1.2100
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

USDJPY Bias: Intraday Bullish above Bearish Below 131.50

Primary resistance is 132.30
Primary objective is 125.00
Above 133.00 opens 135.00
20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

AUDUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below .7060

Primary support is .6950
Primary objective is .7250
Below .6930 opens .6870
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day bullish VWAP

BTCUSD Intraday Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 22500

Primary support 20300
Primary objective is 25000
Below 20200 opens 19400
20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

Daily Market Outlook, January 26, 2023