In this monthly technical analysis, we examine key chart patterns and levels for the EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD pairs, gold (XAUUSD), and Brent crude oil to forecast potential developments for September 2025.
Major technical levels to watch in September 2025
- EURUSD: Support 1.1300, 1.1200. Resistance 1.1850, 1.2000
- USDJPY: Support 146.00, 145.00. Resistance 151.00, 153.00
- GBPUSD: Support 1.3030, 1.2620. Resistance 1.3600, 1.3800
- AUDUSD: Support 0.6222, 0.6020. Resistance 0.6625, 0.6700
- USDCAD: Support 1.3770, 1.3550. Resistance 1.3850, 1.3940
- Gold (XAUUSD): Support: 3,390, 3,320. Resistance: 3,470, 3,530
- Brent: Support: 60.00, 58.50. Resistance: 68.70, 78.50
EURUSD forecast
September looks busy for the euro and the US dollar, with markets focusing on:
- the ECB meeting, where investors will look for guidance on the next policy steps amid persistent inflation in the eurozone
- US inflation and labour market data, which will shape expectations for the Fed’s actions
- Geopolitical risks and equity market dynamics, which affect demand for safe-haven assets and the dollar
The overall picture favours the US dollar, given the divergence in economic growth rates and the likelihood that the Fed keeps policy tight for longer.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the weekly chart, the EURUSD pair completed the five-wave C-wave structure that started in January 2025 within 1.0180-1.1825. The market is now consolidating around 1.1570. In September, a downward wave towards 1.1300 looks likely, followed by a retest of the 1.1570 level from below.
Further declines may extend towards 1.0787 as a local target. A corrective rise to 1.1180 may follow in due course, where the price is expected to rebound from the SMA50 and resume its downward trajectory towards 1.0550. The key target in the broader bearish structure remains around 0.8444.
EURUSD forecast scenarios for September 2025
Bullish scenario (alternative):
A confident breakout and consolidation above 1.1850 would confirm a resumption of the uptrend, with upside targets at:
- 1.2000
- pullback towards 1.1825
- then a move to 1.2222
Bearish scenario (base):
A breakout below 1.1555 and consolidation below 1.1500 would signal the start of the fifth downward wave.
- The first target is at 1.0550
- Then the path opens to 0.8444
USDJPY forecast
In September, markets will focus on the policy gap between the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan.
- US Fed: after hikes in 2023-2024, the regulator stays focused on tight inflation control. August saw the first signs of a possible start to moderate easing in 2026, but markets still expect high rates through year-end
- Bank of Japan: despite signs of faster inflation and a gradual increase in Japanese government bond yields, the regulator keeps policy loose. Pressure on the yen increases, but Japanese authorities traditionally allow currency interventions when the USDJPY pair approaches extremes
- Geopolitics and risk appetite: tensions in global capital markets (US-China trade frictions, commodity price fluctuations) can boost demand for the yen as a safe-haven asset in times of turbulence
Thus, fundamentals for the USDJPY pair remain mixed: the Fed’s tight stance supports the US dollar, while there is the risk of interventions by Japan’s Ministry of Finance and possible surges in demand for safe-haven assets.
USDJPY technical analysis
On the weekly chart, the pair completed an A-B-C correction, reaching 150.78. The market retested the pivot point from below. The five-wave structure of wave C has fully formed, and the correction resembles a Flag. The market now looks ready to break below the 145.00 level and start a new decline towards 139.87, which is viewed as only the first half of the bearish impulse. In September, a narrow consolidation near 140.00 may form. A downside breakout would activate a further move towards 128.88 as a local target by the end of the year.
USDJPY forecast scenarios for September 2025
Bearish scenario (alternative):
A breakout below 146.00 and consolidation below 145.00 would open the potential for a movement towards 139.87. If the bearish impulse strengthens, the decline may extend to 128.90.
Bullish scenario (base):
A breakout and consolidation above 150.80 opens the door for growth to 153.00.
GBPUSD forecast
Fundamentals for the pound remain mixed. In August, the Bank of England signalled a possible softening of tone after signs of slowing inflation. However, labour market resilience prevents the regulator from cutting too quickly. The US Federal Reserve keeps a tighter stance, stressing high Treasury yields and the need to curb inflation risks. This supports demand for the US dollar and pressures the GBPUSD pair. Geopolitical risks and equity market dynamics add to uncertainty: risk-off typically boosts the dollar. In September, markets will watch the Fed and BoE meetings, along with UK inflation and GDP releases.
GBPUSD technical analysis
On the weekly chart, the GBPUSD pair completed an upward wave from 1.2100, hitting 1.3777. A consolidation range forms at the top. The market dropped to 1.3140 and corrected towards 1.3590. It now holds in a tight consolidation range below the 1.3590 resistance level.
Key scenarios:
An upside breakout could spark a jump to 1.3920, after which the decline may resume. Conversely, a downside breakout opens the way to 1.3030, where the SMA50 may trigger a pullback towards 1.3480. September will test the strength of the 1.3030 level.
GBPUSD forecast scenarios for September 2025
Bearish scenario (base):
A breakout and consolidation below 1.3030 will add to pressure on the pound. In this case, the target shifts to 1.2620, especially if US bond yields continue to rise and the Fed supports the dollar.
Bullish scenario (alternative):
Holding above 1.3590 and breaking above 1.3600 would open the path for an upside impulse. The main upside target stands at 1.3920, where buyers may take profits.
AUDUSD forecast
The Australian dollar remains under pressure in September. The RBA keeps a cautious stance, given slowing inflation and lower domestic demand. Risks to GDP growth make the RBA’s dovish tone likely. The Federal Reserve’s tight policy and elevated US bond yields strengthen the dollar and reduce the appeal of high-yield currencies, including the AUD. Commodity uncertainty persists: iron ore and copper prices remain choppy, which directly affects Australia’s export-driven economy. Geopolitical factors in Asia and China’s economic dynamics also remain key drivers for the AUD, adding to volatility.
AUDUSD technical analysis
On the weekly chart, the AUDUSD pair completed a correction at 0.6624. A consolidation range is now forming below this level. The SMA50 caps attempts to extend the rise. In September, a breakout below 0.6410 looks likely, opening the way to 0.6222 as the first target. We practically consider the start of the final downward wave (the fifth) along the broader downtrend towards 0.5820.
AUDUSD forecast scenarios for September 2025
Bearish scenario (base):
A breakout below 0.6410 and consolidation below 0.6400 would open the way to 0.6222, then 0.6020. Elevated commodity volatility could accelerate the move, potentially reaching 0.5820.
Bullish scenario (alternative):
A breakout above the 0.6625 resistance level will trigger growth. The first target is at 0.6700, followed by a possible correction and a further move towards 0.6910.
USDCAD forecast
In September, markets will focus on oil price dynamics, as the Canadian dollar is traditionally sensitive to their fluctuations. Canadian inflation and labour data will also matter. In the US, the Federal Reserve’s policy remains the key factor: rate expectations and guidance on slowing or continuing tightening. A widening rate differential in favour of the US dollar can provide temporaty support for the USD, but high oil prices would keep downside pressure on the USDCAD pair.
USDCAD technical analysis
On the weekly chart, the USDCAD pair formed a corrective Flag pattern. The SMA50 pushed the price down from 1.3922. In September, the pair is expected to break below 1.3720 and move out of the pattern’s channel, increasing the bearish momentum. A breakout below the 1.3720 level will open downside potential towards 1.3500 as a local target. After reaching that level, a correction towards the 1.4020 area (wave 4) looks possible. If this scenario unfolds, the fifth downward wave may develop next with a target around 1.3270.
USDCAD forecast scenarios for September 2025
Bearish scenario (base):
The bearish structure remains as long as the price holds below the SMA50. Failure to consolidate above 1.3900 would signal a downside reversal. A breakout below 1.3720 would open the way to 1.3500 and, later, to 1.3270.
Bullish scenario (alternative):
A breakout and consolidation above 1.3850 will confirm growth, with the nearest targets at:
- 1.3940
- then 1.4020 (retest of the resistance zone).
XAUUSD forecast
Gold remains under pressure from conflicting factors. On one side, rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts support demand for safe-haven assets. On the other, a stronger US dollar and steady risk appetite cap gains. Geopolitical risks continue to act as a catalyst for sharp moves and volatility spikes.
XAUUSD technical analysis
On the weekly chart, the market completed an impulsive rally and broke a Pennant pattern to the upside. The current upside target stands at 3,530, which aligns with the top of the present wave structure and acts as a key resistance level. After testing the 3,500-3,530 zone, a deeper correction looks likely, with the potential downside target at 3,030 (key matrix level and psychological support). If prices break lower, the decline may extend to 2,780-2,530, where a long-term support zone could stabilise the trend.
XAUUSD forecast scenarios for September 2025
Bearish scenario (base):
After reaching 3,530, prices may test the 3,330 area. A breakout below this level would serve as the first confirmation of a deeper correction. The focus will then shift to 3,030 and 2,530, where prices may stabilise before a new uptrend starts.
Bullish scenario (alternative):
Holding above 3,323 and consolidation above 3,390 keep the upside potential intact. In September, the market may test the 3,530 level. A breakout and consolidation above 3,500 will raise volatility and could open the way for a move towards new all-time highs.
Brent forecast
The oil market remains sensitive to global growth trends, energy demand, and OPEC+ policy. Signs of slower global growth, especially in China and the EU, weigh on prices, but steady demand from India and the US partly offsets this. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the Strait of Hormuz continue to add a risk premium. OPEC+ rhetoric indicates a readiness to keep the market balanced by cutting quotas if prices drop below the profitability area around 60.00-65.00 USD per barrel.
Brent technical analysis
On the weekly chart, Brent shows a clear upward wave structure. The first upside target lies near 78.50. After reaching it, a corrective pullback towards 68.70 looks likely, where the SMA50 may offer support. The next scenario suggests the third growth wave towards 88.00 with potential for the fifth wave towards 97.50. The current range around 68.70 acts as key resistance; a breakout above it would activate upside potential. Historically, this zone often marks reversals. A deep decline looks unlikely without an external shock; however, a breakout below the 68.70 support level would allow a test of 60.00 – a psychological and fundamental low that could complete the corrective fourth wave.
Brent forecast scenarios for September 2025
Bullish scenario (base):
If the market holds above 68.70 and breaks the 80.00 consolidation area, an accelerated rise to 97.50 becomes possible, with the potential to reach 105.00 if geopolitical risks intensify. The 100.00 level remains a strategic marker for OPEC+ and may underpin quota adjustments.
Bearish scenario (alternative):
With weak global data and no action from OPEC+, Brent may return to the 68-60 range. A breakout below 68 would open the way to 60. This would test the fundamental bottom (below profitability for several exporting countries).
Source: Roboforex