Hormuz is closed, the market is in panic: Brent is set for a historic surge

Brent prices continue to rise and show no signs of slowing down following the US President’s statements. Quotes are currently forming a correction and testing the 110.00 USD per barrel mark. Find out more in our analysis for 30 April 2026.

Brent forecast: key takeaways

  • Brent quotes tested the 113.47 USD per barrel level
  • The scale of lost global oil supplies continues to grow and significantly exceeds earlier estimates
  • The UAE will leave OPEC and OPEC+ from 1 May
  • Brent forecast for 30 April 2026: 120.00 or 108.30

Fundamental analysis

The Brent forecast for 30 April 2026 shows that oil continues its historic rally, reaching the highs of March 2022. On Thursday morning, quotes tested the 113.47 USD per barrel level.

The main driver of today’s volatility is the news that US President Donald Trump is preparing to receive a report on a plan for military strikes against Iran, which has effectively buried hopes for the quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has been almost halted since late February, taking around 20 million barrels of oil per day off the market. S&P Global Ratings raised its price forecasts and stated that the scale of lost supplies continues to grow and significantly exceeds earlier estimates.

The market has found itself on the edge of an energy collapse. The UAE will leave OPEC and OPEC+ from 1 May, but its potential to increase production is limited by the conflict between the US and Iran, and even the 188,000 barrels per day that other alliance countries may add is a drop in the ocean compared to the 20 million barrels trapped in the Persian Gulf.

The oil market is sitting on a volcano. The short-term outlook depends on one thing only: whether Trump launches a military operation. If this happens, even more may be added to the lost 20 million barrels, and against that backdrop, Brent quotes could surge to 120.00 USD per barrel and, in time, to 150.00 USD.

Technical outlook

On the H4 chart, Brent prices formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, quotes may form a corrective wave following this signal, with the downside target at the 108.30 USD support level.

At the same time, the alternative Brent price forecast for 30 April 2026 should not be excluded, under which Brent quotes may continue the upward wave and test the 120.00 resistance level without testing support.

Brent overview

  • Asset: Brent
  • Timeframe: H4 (Intraday)
  • Trend: upward
  • Key resistance levels: 114.00 and 120.00
  • Key support levels: 108.30 and 99.00

Brent trading scenarios for today

Main scenario (Buy Stop)

Consolidation above 114.00 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend amid persistent supply disruptions and a high geopolitical premium. In this case, quotes may head towards the 120.00 USD per barrel mark and higher.

  • Take Profit: 120.00 USD
  • Stop Loss: 113.50 USD

Alternative scenario (Sell Stop)

A breakout below 108.30 would indicate a move into a correction phase amid possible de-escalation and the start of negotiations, which seems unattainable in the current situation. If Brent quotes fall, the downside target will be the 99.00 USD support level.

  • Take Profit: 99.00 USD
  • Stop Loss: 108.80 USD

Risk factors

Risks to growth are linked to possible progress in US-Iran negotiations and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which will increase supply in the market. An additional factor may be lower inflation expectations and an overall cooling in demand, which will limit Brent’s upside potential.

Summary

Brent prices reached their March 2026 level, testing the 113.47 mark, and could continue to rise amid the escalating Middle East conflict. Today’s Brent technical analysis suggests a correction before further growth.

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