Bitcoin Rally Pauses…For Now

Following a breakout move higher last week, Bitcoin futures have stalled for now into a test of the 53385 level. However, with BTC whales (accounts holding +1000 BTC units) seen adding bullish positions in recent weeks, sentiment has shifted firmly to the upside and focus is on a fresh push north. The initial correction lower, seen on the back of SEC spot-Bitcoin ETF approval in January, was seen abating over late January and has now given way to a fresh period of demand. On the back of the almost 40% rally off the January lows, the market is now awaiting a fresh bullish catalyst.

FOMC Minutes On Watch

Looking ahead today, focus will be on the FOMC minutes from last month. With traders still struggling to gauge likely timing for Fed rate cuts, today’s minutes will be carefully scrutinized. If the Fed is found to be any closer to making a call on cutting rates, this should be highly supportive for risk assets, driving BTC higher near-term with the Dollar coming off accordingly.

However, if the Fed is seen sticking to its guns over higher rates, downplaying near-term rate-cut chances, this should keep BTC stalled for now. Ultimately, however, with Fed rates well-expected this year, the backdrop looks supportive for BTC medium-term, particularly with the next halving event under two months away.

Technical Views


The rally has stalled for now into a test of the 53385 level and the bull channel highs. With momentum studies softening, some corrective action is likely here. However, while the 45520 level support and bull channel lows remain in place, the outlook remains broadly bullish with 56070 the next upside target.