Daily Market Outlook, January 20, 2023 

  • Chinese Market Head Into Lunar New Year Near Bull Market Territory

  • Asian equities close out the week on a firm footing as Chinese investors wind down ahead of  next week’s lunar new year holiday. Western markets remained subdued as FOMC vice chair Brainard, deemed to be in the dovish camp, made remarks that were more aligned with the ‘higher for longer’ view on US interest rates . European Central Bank Chief Lagarde appearing at the World Economic forum in Davos also struck a hawkish tone in her speech, stating that  inflation remains “way too high”, Lagrade speaks again today and is likely to reiterate her hawkish stance. 

  • UK data out this morning  confirmed concerns regarding the UK consumer as January GfK consumer confidence dropped  to -45 from -42 in December, although still at depressed levels this print remains above the record lows seen in September -49, however, sentiment with respect to UK personal finances for the year ahead showed some signs of improvement, retailers will take little solace from this given December retail sales dropped  for a second consecutive month, declining 1.0%, led by lower non-food sales while grocery sales were modestly weaker. The ONS highlighted that  consumers were cutting back due to increased prices and ongoing affordability concerns linked to the cost of living crisis.

  • In the Eurozone, German producer price inflation retreated for a third month in a row  to print  21.6% in December from 28.2% in November. 

  • US existing home sales data due later today, is expected to show another decline as the restrictive rate environment continues to weigh on home buyers’ appetite, if the data confirms another drop, this would mark the eleventh consecutive decline in home sales stateside . Ahead of next week’s blackout period for Fed officials, the Fed’s Harker and Waller are both on deck today, Harker has recently suggested he would be more inclined to back a 25bps rate move at the next meeting, markets will look for additional colour on his views today.

  • Markets-wise, investors are nursing losses heading into the weekend, US markets have been on the back foot with the benchmark SP500 testing pivotal support at the 3900 level, however, European markets are clinging to modest gains at the open of trade. Commodities remain front and centre with WTICrude reclining the $80 handle to trade back above $81 per barrel, Gold also regained its shine, as  the yellow metal remained supported above 1900  bulls keep their sights on a test 1950, the Dollar continues to rotate around the 102 mark, as the Euro continues to cling to 1.08  buoyed by Lagarde’s hawkish rhetoric.

Overnight News of Note

  • US Stock Futures Tick Up After Dow Goes Negative For The Year

  • Asian Stocks Edge Up, Dollar Sags As Markets Mulls Fed Risks

  • Oil Heads For Second Weekly Rise As China Outlook Brightens

  • Gold Set For Fifth Straight Weekly Rise On Fed Slowdown Bets

  • Top Fed Officials Make Case For High Rates To Cool Inflation

  • Poll: Fed To Deliver Two 25Bp Hikes, Followed By Long Pause

  • Fed To Face Tough Choice Longer Debt Ceiling Impasse Stays

  • US Firms Renew Pleas For Biden To End Trump’s China Tariffs

  • China Keeps Benchmark Lending Rates Steady In Fifth Month

  • China Inject Record Amount Of Cash This Week Pre-Holidays

  • Japan Inflation Hits 4% As BoJ Pivot Speculation Smouldering

  • EU Consider More Russia Sanctions Despite Difficult Debates

  • UK Chancellor Hunt Warns Not To Expect Tax Cuts In Budget

  • UK GfK Consumer Confidence Fall Back To Near 50-Year Low

  • Crypto Lender Genesis Files For Bankruptcy As Crisis Spreads

  • Netflix Co-Founder Steps Down As CEO But Adds Subscribers

(Sourced from Bloomberg, Reuters and other reliable financial news outlets)

Options Expiration For the New York Cut 10am EST

(BOLD expiries with  a value of a Billion+more magnetic if price is within the daily trading range)

  • EURUSD 1.0650 1.0800 1.1000

  • GBPUSD 1.20

  • AUDUSD 0.6900

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3869 

  • Primary support is 3869

  • Primary objective is 4055

  • Below 3840 opens 3800

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0735

  • Primary support  is 1.0735

  • Primary objective is 1.09

  • Below 1.0730 opens 1.0610

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.2250

  • Primary support  is 1.2250

  • Primary objective 1.2460

  • Below 1.2240  opens 1.2185

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 132.30

  • Primary resistance is 132.30

  • Primary objective is 125.00

  • Above 133.00 opens 135.00

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6950

  • Primary resistance is .6950

  • Primary objective is .6790

  • Above .7025 opens .7110

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

BTCUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 20000

  • Primary support 20000

  • Primary objective is 22000

  • Below 19600 opens 19000

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish