Daily Market Outlook, November 16, 2022 

“Risk sentiment rocked by stray rocket hitting Poland, reports that a missile landed on the Polish border killing at least two caused a dramatic pullback in US markets, however, as it became clearer that the reported ‘missile’ was more debris from a Ukrainian defensive action markets stabilised, overnight President Biden confirmed that the missile was ‘unlikely’ to have been launched from Russia. The timely reminder of the current extreme geo-political risk has set a cautious tone to trading in Asia and Europe this morning. In the UK focus shifts to BoE Governor Bailey's appearance in front of the Monetary Policy Committee, traders will parse comments for further guidance as to the BoE’s rate path, ahead of tomorrow’s budget statement. In the US, markets await retail sales and industrial production data, with higher rates pressuring consumers it is likely that some softness in retail data persists. Yesterday’s softer producer price data was viewed as further support for the FOMC to reduce the rate of rate hikes in the US, however, Fed policymakers retain a cautious tone in their rhetoric, reminding markets that rates still have further to go even if the rate of the rises slow, further Fed speakers today are likely to underline this approach. In other news former President Trump has officially announced his intention to run for the US Presidency in 2024…”

Overnight Headlines

  • NATO, G7 Offer Support To Poland Over Investigation Into Blasts – RTRS

  • Biden Says Unlikely Rocket That Hit Poland Was Fired From Russia – BBG

  • Oil Edges Lower As Missile Strike On Poland Sparks Volatility – BBG

  • Gold Firms On Fed Slowdown As Investors Assess Poland Blast – RTRS

  • Currencies On Edge As Traders Assess Risks From Poland – RTRS

  • Poland Rocket Blast Caused By Missile Fired By Ukrainian Forces – RTRS

  • Poland Set To Invoke NATO's Article 4, Raise Missile Blast With UN – RTRS

  • Poland's Duda: No Concrete Evidence On Who Fired Border Missile – RTRS

  • US Stock Futures Fall As Investors Await October Retail Sales – CNBC

  • Apple Prepares To Get Made-In-US Chips In Pivot From Asia – BBG

  • Amazon Commences Job Cuts In Alexa Unit, Cloud Gaming – CNBC

  • China’s PBoC Governor: Talks With Yellen ‘Very Constructive’ – BBG

  • ANZ Raise China 2023 Growth Forecast On ‘Policy Normalising’ – BBG 

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3950

Technicals

  • Primary support is 3950

  • Primary upside objective is 4120

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050

  • Failure below 3935 opens a test of 3900

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0285

1.0466 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary support is 1.0285

  • Primary upside objective is 1.0620

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.05

  • Failure below 1.0270 opens a test of 1.0165

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0200-10 (1.83BLN), 1.0225-35 (428M), 1.0250-55 (1.02BLN), 1.0350 (394M), 1.0370 (1.93BLN)

GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1790

1.20 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary support is 1.1790

  • Primary upside objective 1.2050

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1970

  • Failure below 1.1780 opens a test of 1.1710

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1695-00 (414M), 1.1800 (319M)

USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 141

139.26 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary resistance is 141

  • Primary downside objective is 136

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138

  • Acceptance above 142 opens a test of 143.10

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

  • Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 140.00-10 (777M), 140.75 (350M), 141.00 (490M), 142.25 (200M), 142.50 (351M)

AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6650

.6760 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary support is .6650

  • Primary upside objective is .6900

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775

  • Failure below .6620 opens a test of .6550

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/A

BTCUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 16800

Technicals

  • Primary support is 157700

  • Primary upside objective is 18325

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 17000

  • Failure below 15500 opens a test of 14400

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish