Daily Market Outlook, November 17, 2022 

“Risk sentiment remains subdued as US yields firmed overnight, leading Asian equity markets lower. Fed speakers showed little signs of pivoting from the party line of higher rates for longer, their robust defense of their stance on rates was supported by another set of decent retail sales data, suggesting the economy was still running hotter than they would like. In the UK all focus today will be on the much anticipated Autumn budget statement, Chancellor Hunt’s statement will be accompanied by economic forecasts from the Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR), the main focus in these forecasts will be the rate of deterioration in public finances versus the assessment given back in the spring, markets believe there will be a significant decline given lower economic growth and the higher rate environment. The Chancellor is expected to anchor his policy to a determination to reduce debt as a share of GDP over the next five years, reducing the outstanding 50-60Bln whole in the finances through spending cuts and tax rises. On balance stringent fiscal tightening is the name of the game and the Chancellor is set to deliver a message of difficult times ahead. In the Eurozone October CPI is expected to confirm flash readings and show a rise further above the 10% level. In the US data on housing and Philadelphia manufacturing data are expected to show weakness, Feds Bullard also speaks today and traders will parse comments for any signs of caution on the rate path trajectory  …”

Overnight Headlines

  • Dollar Steadies As US Spending Points To Further Rate Hikes – RTRS

  • Crypto Lender BlockFi Plans Bankruptcy Filing Within Days In FTX Fallout – BBG

  • Oil Extends Drop On Demand Concerns As Geopolitical Risks Ease – BBG

  • Europe Needs To Stay Vigilant On Conserving Energy, Engie Warn – BBG

  • Gold Slips Overnight As Dollar Gains, Geopolitical Tensions Ease – RTRS

  • LME Steps Up Scrutiny Of Nickel Trading As Prices Swinging Wildly – BBG

  • US Futures Rise Slightly, Traders Weigh Latest Earning Currents – CNBC

  • Amazon Employees Fear ‘No One Safe’ As Layoffs Roil The Ranks – BBG

  • Cisco’s Revenue Forecast Points To Steady Technology Spending – BBG

  • Nvidia Sales Beat Estimates As Data-Centre Business Fuels Growth – BBG

  • Fed Hawk Waller Joins Other Officials Open To Half-Point Hike – BBG

  • US General Milley: China Not Able To Attack Taiwan Near Term – BBG

  • GOP Wins US House Majority, Sets Stage For Split Government – RTRS

  • Mitch McConnell Secures Re-Election As Senate Minority Leader – WSJ

  • ECB Officials Weigh Slower Rate-Hike Tempo In Half-Point Move – BBG

  • Hunt To Pitch Spending Cuts, Tax Hikes As UK Faces ‘Into Storm’ – BBG

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3950

Technicals

  • Primary support is 3950

  • Primary upside objective is 4120

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050

  • Failure below 3935 opens a test of 3900

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0285

1.0466 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary support is 1.0285

  • Primary upside objective is 1.0620

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.05

  • Failure below 1.0270 opens a test of 1.0165

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0300-05 (822M), 1.0330-35 (568M), 1.0350 (215M), 1.0440 (215M)

GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1850

1.20 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary support is 1.1850

  • Primary upside objective 1.2050

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1970

  • Failure below 1.18 opens a test of 1.1710

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1800 (317M). 

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8700-10 (440M), 0.8800 (416M)

USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 140

139.26 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary resistance is 140

  • Primary downside objective is 136

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138

  • Acceptance above 141.60 opens a test of 143.10

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

  • Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 139.00 (210M), 139.20 (245M), 139.90-00 (812M), 140.10 (895M), 140.50 (280M), 140.75 (200M)

AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6650

.6760 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary support is .6650

  • Primary upside objective is .6900

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775

  • Failure below .6620 opens a test of .6550

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6750 (484M)

USD/CAD: 1.3300 (1.03BLN), 1.3700-10 (1.3BLN)

BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16800

Technicals

  • Intraday 157700 is primary support

  • Primary upside objective is 18325

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 17000

  • Failure below 15500 opens a test of 14400

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish