Daily Market Outlook, November 22, 2022

Overnight Asian markets traded with a mixed tone taking the baton from similar action seen on Wall Street, with US indices whipsawing intraday before closing broadly unchanged. Overnight Chinese authorities issued orders for closure of museums and parks across Beijing and increased mass testing across more major cities. The moves in China have once again led to concern in markets that further closures in China will add to the lackluster global growth environment, the relief rally premised on a reduction in restrictions in China is now being unwound. The China restrictions and OPEC leaks regarding potential supply increases, later denied by Saudi Arabia, led to volatility in Oil markets with the benchmark WTI price seeing a $5 plunge before recovering to close flat on the day just above $80 a barrel. Crypto lender Genesis is struggling to secure financing, a day after halting customer redemptions, leading to concerns of the next domino to fall the cryptoverse, investor confidence in the Crypto space remains depressed, following FTX’s collapse leaving over $3billion dollars owed to creditors.

For the day ahead: the Organisation for Economic Cooperations and Development (OECD) is widely expected to underline its pessimistic outlook for the global economy, as inflation and energy price volatility continue to risk pushing major economies into recession. In the UK, markets will be watching OBR officials testimony in front of the House of Commons Committee, given their new found optimism in an economic recovery that outpaces the Bank of England's view, they may also be quizzed about risks to their new fiscal targets. In the Eurozone, the only data of note is consumer confidence, after recovering from record lows last month, market watchers see limited potential for further improvement. With no tier one data of note in the US, markets will once again parse comments from Fed members, yesterday’s speakers suggested a potential for a slower rise in rates, however, Bullard speaks again today and he spooked markets last week with raising the terminal rate expectation to 7% from the previous 5% level, members George and Mester also speak today.

Overnight Headlines

  • China Covid Cases Near Record High In Test Of Easier Approach

  • US Dollar Pauses Climb In Asia On Tuesday China Covid Fears Mount

  • Crypto Brokerage Genesis Is Said To Warn Of Bankruptcy Without Funding

  • China’s Money Markets Signal Crunch Over In Drop To Two-Year Low

  • US Presses China To Ease Up On Taiwan As Defence Officials Meet

  • New Zealand Posts Record Annual Trade Deficit As Imports Surge

  • Fed Should Be Mindful Of Lags As It Tightens Rates Further, Daly Says

  • Fed's Mester Says She Supports Smaller Rate Hike In December

  • ECB’s Holzmann Backs 0.75 Percentage Point Increase In December

  • ECB's Villeroy: Inflation In France And Europe Will Peak In H1 Of 2023

  • ECB’s Centeno Sees Conditions To Slow Rate Hikes In December

  • UST Curve Steepens; Aussie Bonds Steady Before RBA Lowe Speech

  • Oil Rises In Asia After Saudis Deny Report Of OPEC+ Supply Increase

  • Russia Reiterates It Won’t Sell Oil To Nations That Introduce Price Cap

  • China Thought To Be Stockpiling Gold To Cut Greenback Dependence

  • Asia Stocks Trade Mixed As Weak Yen Fuels Japan Gains; China Tech Falls

  • Dell Quarterly Profit Jumps On Higher Server Demand, Lower Costs

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3850


  • Primary support is 3850

  • Primary upside objective is 4120

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050

  • Failure below 3800 opens a test of 3760

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0230


  • Primary support is 1.0230

  • Primary upside objective is 1.0620

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.04

  • Failure below 1.0230 opens a test of 1.0180

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0100 (345M), 1.0200 (350M), 1.0250 (398M)

  • 1.0300-10 (320M), 1.0370-75 (308M)

GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1730


  • Primary support is 1.1730

  • Primary upside objective 1.2050

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1970

  • Failure below 1.17 opens a test of 1.1640

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/A

USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 143


  • Primary resistance is 143

  • Primary downside objective is 136

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138

  • Acceptance above 143.30 opens a test of 145

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 139.85 (394M), 140.00 (375M), 141.00 (410M)

  • 141.85 (280M), 142.50 (530M), 144.00 (260M)

AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6560


  • Primary support is .6560

  • Primary upside objective is .6900

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6775

  • Failure below .6560 opens a test of .6508

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/A

BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16600


  • Intraday 16600 is primary resistance

  • Primary downside objective is 15000

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 15500

  • Acceptance above 16700 opens a test of 17100

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish