Daily Market Outlook, November 8, 2022

“Asian markets retain a bid tone overnight, the outlier remains Chinese equities which have failed to take the positive lead from European and US markets overnight. Overnight data from Australia showed continued deterioration in both business and consumer sentiment readings. Markets are firmly focused on political developments in the US, polling suggests that Republicans are favored to take control of  the House of Representatives, the Senate races remain too close to call. With President Biden’s popularity plumbing new lows there is a decent chance that Republicans wrestle control of both houses, this result would significantly hamper the Biden’s administration to make any meaningful policy headway in the second half of his term, further frustration for the Biden administration is seen with former President Trump setting the stage for a Presidential run in 2024, this would essentially see the clock running on the 2024 race as soon as next week. Markets appear poised for a red sweep in the US which will be seen as positive for markets, weighing on the Dollar and US Yields, as the Fed will likely have to take up the baton of economic support as the fiscal impulse from the government will be significantly impeded if not totally neutralised…”

Overnight Headlines

  • Biden: GOP Win Will Roll Back Help For ‘Struggling’ Families – BBG

  • Trump Will Make A “Big Announcement” On Nov 15 – RTRS

  • China Reopening Hopes Keep US Dollar On Guard – RTRS

  • FTX Token Plummets As Market Fears Possible Alameda Contagion – CoinDesk

  • Biden Predicts Democrats Will Win The Senate – The Hill

  • Poll: Biden Approval Ticks Lower As Democrats Brace For Midterm Losses – RTRS

  • US Monetary Policy Tighter Than Benchmark Rate Suggests – RTRS

  • Fed’s Barkin: Fed Will Stick To The Task Of Curbing Inflation – BBG

  • EU Dims Hopes For A Price Cap To Contain Soaring Gas Costs – BBG

  • EU Aims To Dispel Criticism On Ukraine Aid With €18 Billion Plan – BBG

  • Eurozone Grapples With Coordinating Energy Support Plans As Recession Looms – RTRS

  • ECB’s Lagarde: ECB Must Bring Inflation Back To 2% – BBG

  • Germany To Spend €83.3 Billion To Subsidize Energy Prices – BBG

  • Germany Should Hike Taxes On Rich To Finance Relief Packages – RTRS

  • Oil Prices Fall As China Demand, Recession Concerns Outweigh Supply Woes – RTRS

  • Gold Stalls As Investors Brace For US Inflation Data – RTRS

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3730

Technicals

  • Primary support is 3730

  • Primary upside objective is 3994

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 3920

  • Failure below 3695 opens a test of 3630

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .9890

Technicals

  • Primary support is .9890

  • Primary upside objective is 1.0284

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.00

  • Failure below .9815 opens a test of .9630

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.9800 (1.06BN), 0.9900 (201M), 0.9950 (603M),0.9970-85 (1.42BN), 0.9990-00 (1.022BN), 1.0020-25 (673M), 1.0050 (468M)

GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1320

Technicals

  • Primary support is 1.1320

  • Primary upside objective 1.20

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1650

  • Failure below 1.1290 opens a test of 1.1150

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1500 (603M)

USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 148.10

Technicals

  • Primary resistance is 148.10

  • Primary downside objective is 143.25

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 146

  • Acceptance above 148.50 opens a test of 149.70

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

  • Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: EUR/JPY: 146.00 (243M)

AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6400

Technicals

  • Primary support is .6400

  • Primary upside objective is .6590

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6520

  • Failure below .6350 opens a test of .6280

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6250 (307M), 0.6275 (714M), 0.6300 (325M), 

  • 0.6390 (225M), 0.6450 (1.73BN), 0.6500 (494M)

BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 19100

Technicals

  • Intraday 19100 is primary support

  • Primary upside objective is 22191

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 21460

  • Failure below 19000 opens a test of 18600

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish