Daily Market Outlook, November 9, 2022 

“Asian markets are generally softer, failing to pick up the bullish baton set up by the positive tone from European and US markets. China has removed Covid restrictions in the critical Zhengzhou region which houses the major iPhone production plant, this news was accompanied by an extension of restrictions in the country's fourth largest city Guangzhou. Inflation data released by China overnight showed weaker than expected consumer and producer prices. In the US midterm election votes continue to be counted, initial results indicate that the Republican party have seized control of the Congress, with the Senate race remaining too close to call, markets sense a period of political division is ahead, with a divide between the Presidency and the legislative branch causing political gridlock, hampering the Biden administrations ability to push through meaningful policy in the second half of Biden’s term. Markets will focus on the potential inability of the administration's aspirations to deliver  further fiscal support, which would imply that the Fed will become the focus for any fiscal safety net via a pause or pivot in the current rate path. Looking to the day ahead, from a data perspective the calendar is scant with a smattering of central bank speakers in the UK, policymaker Haskel is set to speak on investment intangibles. In the US Barkin and Williams will also be making remarks, although markets are already eyeing tomorrow's US CPI release as the next meaningful directional catalyst …”

Overnight Headlines

  • Republicans Favoured To Win US House In Close-Fought Midterm Elections – RTRS

  • Cryptos Attempt To Steady As Binance-FTX Deal Chills Market – RTRS

  • Crypto Retail Investors Rattled As Binance Moves To Acquire FTX – BBG

  • It’s Getting Harder To Switch Jobs As Us Labour Market Shows Cracks – BBG

  • Tropical Storm Nicole To Become Hurricane As Path Points Toward Florida – WSJ

  • Canada’s Economy Seen Taking 5.8% Hit From Climate Change By 2100 – BBG

  • Russia And US To Resume Nuclear Talks As Ukraine War Rages On – BBG

  • Ukraine Denies Western Pressure To Soften Stance On Talks With Russia – RTRS

  • Ukraine’s Zelensky Sets Conditions For ‘Genuine’ Peace Talks With Russia – WSJ

  • Putin's Elite Tremble As Hardliners Call For ‘Stalinist’ Steps – BBG

  • EU Set To Delay Payment Of €3.0B Of Aid To Ukraine Again – BBG

  • Dollar Wobbles While Investors Await Midterms – RTRS

  • Yuan Volatility Jumps Closer To Global Peers As China Eases Grip – BBG

  • Oil Prices Ease On US Inventory Build, China Covid Worries – RTRS

  • US Heating Cost Forecast Nearly Doubles As Fuel Stocks Tighten – BBG

  • Gold Steadies Near 1-Month Peak Ahead Of US Inflation Data – RTRS

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3760

Technicals

  • Primary support is 3760

  • Primary upside objective is 4118

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 3920

  • Failure below 3760 opens a test of 3630

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .9890

Technicals

  • Primary support is .9890

  • Primary upside objective is 1.0284

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.00

  • Failure below .9815 opens a test of .9630

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.9945 (250M), 1.0000 (302M), 1.0100 (293M)

GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1430

Technicals

  • Primary support is 1.1430

  • Primary upside objective 1.20

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1650

  • Failure below 1.1310 opens a test of 1.1170

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1575 (362M)

USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 146.50

Technicals

  • Primary resistance is 146.50

  • Primary downside objective is 143.25

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 145

  • Acceptance above 146.60 opens a test of 147.10

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

  • Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 143.00 (500M), 145.50 (300M), 147.00 (543M)

AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6480

Technicals

  • Primary support is .6480

  • Primary upside objective is .6590

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6520

  • Failure below .6460 opens a test of .6400

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6500 (262M), 0.6675 (261M)

BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 18700

Technicals

  • Intraday 18700 is primary resistance

  • Primary downside objective is 17724

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 18000

  • Acceptance above 18800 opens a test of 19150

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish