The GBPUSD rate is rising slightly, with the price currently at 1.2457. Find out more in our analysis for 29 January 2025.
GBPUSD forecast: key trading points
- Concerns about trade tensions with Canada and Mexico intensified, leading to a decline in the GBPUSD pair
- Traders expect the Federal Reserve to keep the interest rate at the current level
- The Bank of England may consider easing monetary policy in February
- GBPUSD forecast for 29 January 2025: 1.2585 and 1.2655
Fundamental analysis
The GBPUSD rate is recovering from yesterday’s decline. The British pound failed to hold onto a three-week high due to the US president’s statements about imposing additional tariffs.
Donald Trump noted that new tariffs would affect key economic sectors, which fuelled concerns about trade tensions (especially with Canada and Mexico). As a result, these threats caused the GBPUSD pair to fall.
Central banks’ policies remain in the spotlight. The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the interest rate at the current level, while the Bank of England, despite the robust PMI data, is ready to consider lowering the rate as early as February. According to today’s GBPUSD forecast, this could limit the pair’s growth potential.
UK manufacturing PMI rose to 48.2 in January 2025 from 47.0 points in December, above the forecast of 47.0.
Following the Federal Reserve’s decision, traders will focus on Jerome Powell’s speech looking for new signals on the inflation outlook and the timing for a potential interest rate cut.
GBPUSD technical analysis
The uptrend persists on the GBPUSD hourly chart, with the price continuing to move within a bullish channel. Having tested the EMA-65 line, the price rebounded upwards, indicating mounting pressure from buyers. Today’s GBPUSD forecast suggests a short-term decline to 1.2435, followed by growth to 1.2585. A breakout above this crucial resistance level will open the way for further strengthening of the currency pair to 1.2655.
The analysis of the Stochastic Oscillator also confirms potential growth. The Oscillator readings exited the oversold area, and the intersection of the %K and %D lines formed a clear bullish signal. This indicates a high potential for further upward movement in the short term.
The alternative scenario is possible if the price breaks below the lower boundary of the channel and consolidates below 1.2395. In this case, a deeper downward correction could follow, potentially pushing GBPUSD quotes lower to 1.2295.
Summary
GBPUSD growth is limited by expectations of a Bank of England interest rate cut. Traders are awaiting signals from Jerome Powell about the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. The GBPUSD technical analysis indicates a persistent uptrend, supported by technical indicators with the nearest growth targets at 1.2585 and 1.2655. However, a breakout below the 1.2395 support level may signal the beginning of a decline.
Source: Roboforex
