Investment Bank Outlook 06-01-2022

CIBCFX FlowsThere has been a fierce rotation in stocks. Investors rushed to liquidate shares of tech companies, which has surged during the pandemic. Nasdaq Composite fell near 3.3% and we also saw sell off in the US Treasury bond market. Report in FT said that investors moved into automakers like Ford and GM, as well as banks. Even with fall, some investors have maintained bets on industries that are tied closely to the US economic expansion, companies like banking, industrial and energy.Asia saw similar pattern, shares of Japanese tech firms were down more than 2%. Kosdaq down near 1.3%.$YEN was sold for the Tokyo fix, momentum continued into late morning to 115.825. Nikkei 225 Index ended the morning -2.08% limited the bounce in the $YEN. One reporter wrote that part of the selling was linked to option strike at 116.00 which rolls off tomorrow for near $2bn. Clearing 115.80 could lead the pair to 115.52. Remember, most macro and momentum funds are long $YEN, the Mrs. Watanabe are short.The final December Markit PMIs for Australia were in line with flash readings, China’s Caixin PMIs improved in both services and composite, but non helped the AUD$. The pair slipped towards 0.7200, we think there are bids scattered to 0.7180. If the momentum continues into Europe, we could see 0.7160 where A$2.1bn of strikes mature tomorrow.EUR$ ended the morning almost unchanged, brief ride to 1.13075 on back of EUR¥ but was short-lived. Market is still nervous over Fed-ECB policy divergence, approach 1.1380 could attract fresh sellers. Option strikes due today are 1.1300 for €1.5bn and 1.1275 for €1.3bn.CitiEuropean OpenThe hawkish minutes from the Fed yesterday was the main driver of markets today. While DXY was relatively flat, the greenback fared better against most of the G10. UST yields rose by about 2bps across the curve. JPY gained against the dollar amid the continuation of the stock slump from yesterday, while high-beta currencies lagged, with AUD and NZD leading losses. COP saw a high CPI print early during Asian hours, which should further move possibility for a 75bps hike at the next Banrep meeting. USD Asia was mostly higher, although we note a large move up in USDTHB, following the minutes, as well as a raise in the country’s Covid alert.Looking ahead, the US will see Initial Jobless & Continuing Claims at 13:30 GMT, followed by Fed’s Bullard at 18:15 GMT. EUR will see Germany Factory Orders at 07:00 GMT, followed by Germany CPI at 13:00 GMT. Over in the EM space, Citi Economics expects policy rate hikes to continue in 30bp steps today for HUF (prior 4%) at 08:30 GMT. BRL sees inflation prints and IP at 11:00 GMT abd 12:00 GMT respectively, while MXN awaits Central Bank Monetary Policy Minutes at 15:00 GMT. PEN will also see a reference rate at 23:00 GMT, where markets expect a 50bps hike to 3.00%.

Source: Tickmill

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