The release of the US Inflation Report for January this week once again drew markets’ attention to the problem of central banks not keeping up with the economic growth curve, expectations of households and firms. Despite a rather high expected level (7.3%), inflation again beat the forecast, triggering rumors that the Fed will have to tighten policy in a hurry to bring the situation under control. Warnings and calls are being heard, in particular from Fed officials, from which one can understand that many surprises await us at the March meeting.To clarify the possible strategy of the Fed at the next meeting investors will focus on the minutes of the last meeting of the Fed, which will appear next Thursday. Hiking interest rate by 50 bp in March has not yet been fully priced in by the market, so the Fed’s Minutes may well impress the markets and adjust expectations in the right direction.Also on Wednesday, the US retail sales report will be released. Increased inflation is indeed accompanied by the expansion of the economy; however, this cannot be said about high inflation, and the dynamics of retail sales in January will allow us to assess the impact on consumption caused by consumer prices, which start to grow at a very high pace. Growth by 0.7% in monthly terms is expected.But it’s not just the US that’s expected to report next week’s retail sales. The corresponding reports for the UK and Canada will be released on the final day of the week, on Friday. Markets will be looking for hints and signals that other central banks, based on the data coming out, will also start to catch up with the Fed in terms of tightening policy. If not, then the dollar may be waiting for a new stage of the rally.
Source: Tickmill
