On the H4, with prices moving within an ascending channel and above the ichimoku indicator, we have a bullish bias that price will rise to the pivot at 0.63205 where the swing high resistance, 127.2% fibonacci extension and 78.6% fibonacci retracement are. Once there is upside confirmation of price breaking pivot structure, we would expect bullish momentum to carry price to 1st resistance at 0.63840 where the swing high resistance, 78.6% fibonacci projection , 161.8% fibonacci extension and 127.2% fibonacci extension are.
Alternatively, price could drop to the 1st support at 0.62485 where the overlap support is.
Due to the lower economic activity, we have a bearish view on New Zealand Dollars. We’ll need to exercise caution for this setup because our fundamentals and technicals are not completely aligned.
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Written by Desmond Leong
Desmond Leong runs an award-winning research firm (The Technical Analyst finalists 2018/19/20 for Best FX and Equity Research) advising banks, brokers and hedge funds. Backed by a team of CFA, CMT, CFTe accredited traders, he takes on the market daily using a combination of technical and fundamental analysis.
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