Oracle Corporation’s strong Q4 fiscal 2025 report, along with its upbeat guidance for 2026, has strengthened investor interest in the company’s shares. If everything goes well, ORCL quotes could reach the 300 USD mark.
Oracle Corporation’s (NYSE: ORCL) Q4 fiscal 2025 report exceeded expectations, with revenue up 11% year-on-year to 15.9 billion USD, and adjusted EPS reaching 1.70 USD, driven by a 52% rise in cloud (OCI) revenue. Contracts already awarded but not yet recognised in revenue rose by 41% to 138 billion USD. Oracle’s management has forecast stronger growth in fiscal 2026, including OCI revenue growth of over 70%. Despite the robust results, Oracle faces challenges related to limited infrastructure scalability, which could temporarily restrain revenue growth amid strong demand for AI cloud solutions.
Investors responded positively to Oracle’s report, with the company’s stock up 14%, reaching a new all-time high of 202 USD. Amid strong guidance for cloud services, Oracle Cloud Infrastructure is expected to grow by over 70% in fiscal 2026. Experts have raised price targets for Oracle shares to 246 USD, calling the potential in AI and cloud solutions impressive despite high capital expenditures. Technical analysis suggests a potential for ORCL stock price growth towards 300 USD. Overall, the market remains largely confident in Oracle’s strategic positioning and long-term growth.
This article examines Oracle Corporation, detailing its business model and conducting a fundamental analysis of Oracle’s report. Additionally, it includes a technical analysis of Oracle Corporation’s shares based on its current performance, which serves as the basis for the ORCL stock forecast for 2025.
Oracle Corporation is an American technology company founded in 1977 by Larry Ellison, Bob Miner, and Ed Oates under the original name Software Development Laboratories. Initially, the headquarters were located in Austin, Texas. After rebranding to Oracle in 1982, the company specialised in software development and cloud technologies, including database management systems (DBMS), enterprise software, cloud solutions, and infrastructure. The company is renowned for its flagship product, Oracle Database, and is also actively expanding its cloud services (Oracle Cloud), competing with AWS, Google Cloud, and Microsoft Azure.
Oracle went public on 12 March 1986 on the NASDAQ under the ticker symbol ORCL, becoming one of the first technology companies to list on the public market. Today, Oracle is one of the most prominent players in the enterprise technology industry, focusing on business digitalisation and cloud innovations.
Image of the company name Oracle Corporation
Oracle Corporation’s primary sources of revenue
Oracle’s primary sources of revenue are derived from the following business segments:
- Cloud Services and License: this is the largest revenue source, accounting for approximately 86% of total revenue. Oracle provides licences for its software products, such as Java, Oracle Applications, Oracle Database, Oracle Middleware, and others. This segment also includes cloud computing via the Oracle Cloud platform, encompassing IaaS (Infrastructure as a Service), PaaS (Platform as a Service), and SaaS (Software as a Service) models
- Hardware: around 5% of revenue comes from the sale of hardware, including servers, storage systems, and specialised equipment. Production is outsourced to contract partners, with revenue further supplemented by software related to the hardware
- Services: Approximately 9% of revenue is generated from technical support and consulting services. This includes user support for Oracle software, updates, training, and assistance with solution integration. This segment is crucial for customer retention and ensuring stable financial inflows
Oracle Corporation Q3 FY 2025 report
On 10 March, Oracle Corporation published its Q3 2025 financial results for the period ending 28 February 2025. Below are the key figures:
- Revenue: 14.13 billion USD (+6%)
- Net profit: 4.23 billion USD (+6%)
- Earnings per share: 1.47 USD (+4%)
- Operating margin: 44.00% (unchanged)
Revenue by segment:
- Cloud services and licence support: 11.00 billion USD (+10%)
- Cloud revenue (IaaS plus SaaS): 6.20 billion USD (+23%)
- Cloud licence and on-premise licence: 1.12 billion USD (-10%)
- Hardware: 703.00 million USD (-7%) #. Services: 1.29 billion USD (-1%)
Oracle’s results for Q3 2025 present a mixed picture, reflecting both achievements and challenges.
Overall revenue of 14.10 billion USD fell short of the 14.40 billion USD forecasted by analysts, indicating difficulties in meeting market expectations. Adjusted earnings per share amounted to 1.47 USD, below the expected 1.49 USD, signalling a decline in profitability. Furthermore, while revenue from Cloud services and licence support grew by 10%, it did not reach the anticipated 11.20 billion USD, indicating challenges with the full-scale monetisation of the cloud market.
On a positive note, the company entered into strategic partnerships with OpenAI, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ: META), and NVIDIA (NASDAQ: NVDA), which, according to CEO Safra Catz, is expected to drive a 15% revenue increase in the 2026 financial year that starts in June of this year. In addition, Oracle plans to double its data centre capacity over the year to meet the growing demand for cloud services. Oracle has also invested in the Stargate project, which aims to develop cloud and network infrastructure for scalable computing and AI applications. For Oracle’s shareholders, the pleasant news was the announcement of a 25% increase in quarterly dividends, raising them to 0.50 USD per share.
Oracle Corporation Q4 FY 2025 report
- Revenue: 15.90 billion USD (+11%)
- Net income: 3.42 billion USD (+9%)
- Earnings per share: 1.70 USD (+4%)
- Operating margin: 44.00% (-300 basis points)
Revenue by segment:
- Cloud services and license support: 11.70 billion USD (+14%)
- Cloud Revenue (IaaS plus SaaS): 6.70 billion USD (+27%)
- Cloud license and on-premise license: 2.01 billion USD (+9%)
- Hardware: 850.00 million USD (-2%)
- Services: 1.35 billion USD (%)
Oracle Corporation’s Q4 fiscal 2025 report highlighted the company’s accelerating shift towards a cloud-centric business model. Total revenue rose by 11% year-on-year to 15.9 billion USD, with adjusted EPS reaching 1.70 USD, beating analysts’ expectations. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI) revenue growth of 52% to 3 billion USD was particularly notable, making this segment the company’s key growth driver.
Management emphasised the strength of Remaining Performance Obligations (RPO), which rose by 41% to 138 billion USD. CFO Safra Catz stated that this figure could more than double in fiscal 2026, providing high predictability of future revenues. According to the company’s guidance, the cloud segment is expected to accelerate significantly next year, with total cloud revenue projected to rise by over 40% and OCI revenue up by over 70%.
Chairman of the Board and Chief Technology Officer Larry Ellison announced an aggressive expansion of Oracle’s global data centre network, including hundreds of new deployments across its Multi-Cloud and Cloud@Customer platforms. These initiatives, backed by a 25 billion USD investment program, reinforce Oracle’s position in the competitive landscape against major providers such as Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud. Additionally, the company is actively involved in generative AI initiatives, including providing infrastructure support for AI startups and potential involvement in projects such as the spin-off of TikTok in the US.
The company’s shares gained 14% following the report’s release, indicating growing investor confidence. Oracle is successfully transitioning from a traditional licensing model to one based on recurring cloud revenues. Nevertheless, investors should consider the company’s high debt burden and relatively elevated valuation multiples compared to competitors.
For fiscal 2026, the company forecasts revenue of at least 67 billion USD, which corresponds to annual growth of 16-17%. Alongside RPO growth and sustained demand for OCI, this forecast lays the foundation for continued positive momentum. Thus, Oracle reinforces its status as a serious player in the enterprise cloud infrastructure market, with its strategic investments well-positioned to yield long-term returns for shareholders.
Expert forecasts for Oracle Corporation stock for 2025
- Barchart: 20 out of 35 analysts rated Oracle Corporation shares as Strong Buy, two as Buy, and 13 as Hold, with a high target price of 246 USD
- MarketBeat: 18 out of 29 specialists assigned a Buy rating to the shares, while 11 gave a Hold recommendation, with a high target price of 220 USD
- TipRanks: 12 out of 23 professionals recommended the stock as a Buy, while 11 gave a Hold rating, with a high target price of 220 USD
- Stock Analysis: out of 28 experts, eight rated the stock as Strong Buy, eight as Buy, and 12 as Hold, with a high target price of 246 USD
Expert forecasts for Oracle Corporation stock for 2025
Oracle Corporation stock price forecast for 2025
On a weekly timeframe, Oracle Corporation stock is trading within an ascending channel and approaching the channel’s upper boundary, which acts as resistance. Based on Oracle’s stock performance, the potential price movements in 2025 are as follows:
The optimistic forecast for Oracle Corporation stock suggests a breakout above the channel’s upper boundary, with the ORCL share price rising by the channel’s width. In this scenario, the share value could increase to 300 USD. This forecast is supported by the company’s strong guidance for fiscal 2026.
The alternative forecast for Oracle Corporation shares suggests a breakout below the 195 USD support level. In this case, the ORCL share price could correct towards 152 USD. A rebound from this level would indicate the completion of the correction and a resumption of growth within the uptrend. In this event, ORCL shares could reach the upper boundary of the price channel near 240 USD.
Oracle Corporation stock analysis and forecast for 2025
Risks of investing in Oracle Corporation stock
Investing in Oracle Corporation’s shares is associated with several risks that could negatively affect the company’s revenues and impact its investors. Below are the main risks:
- Intense competition in cloud computing: Oracle faces fierce competition from giants such as Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN), and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), which dominate the cloud technology market. If Oracle fails to implement innovations fully and offer competitive pricing, it may lose market share, reducing its revenues
- Declining demand for outdated software: a significant portion of Oracle’s revenue comes from licences for on-premise software. As companies increasingly move to cloud-based solutions, the demand for traditional applications may decline. If Oracle does not ensure a transition of these clients to its cloud products in the near future, its revenue may shrink
- Customer retention issues: Oracle has been criticised for its aggressive sales tactics and complex licensing agreements, which may cause customer dissatisfaction. If this results in customer attrition, recurring revenue from support and subscriptions could decline
- Economic downturns: Oracle’s business model is oriented towards enterprises and depends on corporate IT budgets. During recessions or economic slowdowns, companies may delay or cut back on spending for software, cloud services, or hardware upgrades, which would directly affect Oracle’s revenues
- Limited infrastructure scalability: amid rapidly growing demand for cloud services, especially from AI-related projects, Oracle may face a shortage of computing capacity. Despite the announced data centre expansion plans and significant capital investment, the process of ramping up infrastructure takes time and resources. This may delay the execution of contracts and revenue recognition, and even lead to client attrition to competitors with more scalable architectures. As a result, short-term revenue growth may be limited despite strong demand.
Source: Roboforex
