The dollar rally of May has been facing difficulties since the beginning of the month. Despite a decent unemployment report, the situation did not favor buyers. The focus is on the story that the Federal Reserve will postpone the rate hike until July:
Yesterday, the dollar was additionally pressured by a negative surprise in the ISM report. The service activity index decreased from 51.9 to 50.3 points in May, indicating that the overall situation in the sector only marginally improved according to respondents’ feedback. It was expected that the index would rise to 52.2 points. This is the first significant disappointment in the US data after a series of positive surprises towards the end of the first and beginning of the second quarter.
Today, the dollar’s rebound will be tested at the 104.30 level on the U.S. currency index. If the price manages to break out of the channel and develop a sustainable upward movement, the downside can be considered as a correction to the May rally and traders may anticipate that the price will reach a new local high at 104.50 or at least undergo a retest. If the price remains within the range, there is an increased risk that 104.50 will be considered as a turning point for the rally.
Crude oil failed to sustain its growth following the decision of OPEC+ to limit production, primarily by Saudi Arabia. Moreover, the quotes are trading below last week’s closing point. The medium-term trend is downward:
The market has absorbed the news on the supply side, and the focus is shifting to demand signals. The stabilization of spot WTI above $70 per barrel coincided with a series of positive economic surprises in the United States. However, the Federal Reserve cast doubt on the optimism by suggesting that the data is contradictory. The release of ISM data on the sensitive U.S. service sector raised even more questions. In the short term, the range of $65-70 appears more likely than $70-75 per barrel.
The GBPUSD pair is constrained by two trend lines – medium-term and long-term:
The main idea is that the direction of the breakout will be determined by short-term dynamics based on the emerging momentum.