The IndeX Files 10-05-2022


It’s been a tough start to the week for global equities indices with the four benchmarks tracked here each falling to multi-month lows on Monday. The growing wave of central bank monetary tightening, along with rising inflation and ongoing supply-chain risks is adding to fears of a global pull-back. Central bankers have warned about the risks to growth alongside the recent rate hikes we’ve seen from the Fed and the BOE, and with some ECB members voicing support for similar hikes, the tide has turned on European equities also.One of the leading causes for concern is fear of a slow-down in China. With world’s second largest economy currently being held hostage amidst fresh, regional lockdowns, activity is slumping. Recent trade data released at the start of the week underscoring the drop in performance. China export growth slumped to a two-year low in April while imports were flatlined. The economy is suffering from all angles with higher rates, higher inflation, supply chain issues and COVID disruptions all creating headwinds.With the US Dollar rallying on safe-haven inflows and hawkish Fed expectations, the near-term outlook for equities markets has weakened considerably. Tomorrow’s US CPI release will now take centre stage. Further strength in inflation will no doubt drive equities prices lower. However, there has been growing speculation around a potential ceiling in inflation. Any signs that inflation has cooled in the wake of the Fed’s recent rate hikes might therefore help equities rebound further.Technical ViewsDAXThe DAX continues to move lower this week following the recent failure at the 14170.79 level. Price has now broken below the 13672.31 level as the bear channel continues to develop. While below here, the focus is on a further push lower towards the 13067.45 level next, in line with bearish MACD and RSI readings.S&P 500Following the breakdown through the long-term rising trend line, the market has since fallen down to test the channel support of the large bear channel framing the reversal from highs. Price is currently sitting on support at the 3961.50 level. However, with both MACD and RSI bearish, further losses look likely while price holds beneath 4062.25, putting the focus on 3845.25 next.FTSEThe FTSE has decline sharply from the latest rejection at the 7558.7 level. Price has now broken down through the rising channel low, though is attempting to break back above today, hovering around the 7241 level. With both MACD and RSI bearish, the focus is on further losses towards 7137 and 6968.7 near term unless bulls can break above 7362.6.NIKKEIThe Nikkei has moved lower following the latest failed attempt to rally above the 27422.9 level. This level has established itself as the top of the recent range, with price now trading back down around the 26246 level. With both MACD and RSI bearish, the near-term focus is on further downside towards the 25595.3 level and channel low.

Source: Tickmill

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