Equities Bulls Competing With Hawkish Central Bank Comments
We’ve seen a mixed start to the week for global equities benchmarks. Against a backdrop of ongoing weakness in the Dollar, most indices were seen trading higher yesterday though gains have since been tempered across the European open on Tuesday. Indeed, the FTSE is seeing decent selling pressure while the Nikkei has reversed sharply from initial gains on the day. The DAX, which had been the strongest performer over early 2023 trading, has also come back under pressure today amidst a slew of weaker PMI readings for France and Germany.
Global yields are looking a little more buoyant today, which is having a subduing effect on equities prices. Recent hawkish central bank commentary is no doubt feeding into this. Ahead of the Fed’s pre-FOMC blackout period we heard several members calling on the Fed to keep going with rates. We’ve heard similar comments from the ECB recently with ECB head Lagarde warning that the ECB will need to keep going with rates in order to bring inflation down to target, sullying any expectations of a near-term ECB pivot.
The China reopening story continues to provide a supportive backdrop for equities, however. While ongoing concerns around the covid situation are offsetting this positivity somewhat, as we move through the quarter, the reopening should start to drive stock sentiment higher in a clearer fashion.
For now, the index continues to push higher within the rising wedge formation which has framed the move off last year’s lows. Price has recently pushed through the 14703.98 level and, though currently stalled into a test of 15163.41, while price holds above here, the focus is on a continuation higher with 15642.76 the next upside level to note.
The index has now broken back above the bear channel top after finding decent support on a test of the 3910 level. While this area holds, the focus is on a continuation higher, in line with bullish momentum studies readings. 4153.50 is the next upside level to watch with a break there opening the way for a move higher towards 4305 thereafter.
The rally has fizzled out ahead of a test of the 7904.7 level and price is now reversing quickly lower. While still above 7678.8 for now, the key area to watch is the run of broken highs and retest of the broken channel top around 7575.8. While this area holds, the medium term outlook remains bullish.
The rally off the 25500.5 lows has seen the market breaking back above the 26246 level. Price is now fast approaching a test of the 27422.9 level, with the retest o the broken bullish trend line sitting just above. This is a key resistance area for the market and will be firmly bullish if broken.