Technical & Trade View


Trade View

  • Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .9660


  • Primary resistance is .9660 watch for bearish reversal patterns here

  • Primary pattern objective is .9300

  • Acceptance below .9440 next pattern confirmation

  • Acceptance above .9700 opens a test of .9840

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Options Expiries for today’s New York cut USD/CHF: 0.9525 (1.0BN) 

Institutional Insights

  • Analysts at Credit Agricole note ‘Heightened concerns over Europe’s energy outlook going into the winter have spurred sustained safe-haven bids into  the  CHF  whose  appreciation  was  temporarily  halted  by  a  neutral  SNB.  Consolidation  could  still  ensue,  as Switzerland’s sounder stance makes the CHF a more compelling alternative among European currencies’, while the ‘ The USD has been seen as the key beneficiary of the unfolding global economic slowdown: (1) the US economy is more resilient than its European and Asian counterparts; (2) the Fed has emerged as one of the more hawkish G10 central banks in a boost to the USD’s real rate appeal; while (3) risk-averse investors continue to seek refuge in high-yielding USD cash. We expect the USD to peak only in Q123 as it remains supported by its status as a high-yielding, safe-haven currency. The fact that the USD is overbought and overvalued also means that the pace of any additional gains could slow down in the next 3-6M, however. Further out, depending on the severity of the global downturn, the USD should cede some ground vs other safe havens like the JPY and CHF –under a global ‘hard landing’