This weekly technical analysis highlights the key chart patterns and levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, gold (XAUUSD), and Brent crude oil to forecast market moves for the upcoming week (28 July – 1 August 2025).
Major technical levels to watch this week
- EURUSD: Support: 1.1666-1.1880. Resistance: 1.1500, 1.1340, 1.1200, 1.1150
- USDJPY: Support: 145.65-140.00. Resistance: 149.20-151.20
- GBPUSD: Support: 1.3270, 1.3030. Resistance: 1.3530, 1.3600
- AUDUSD: Support: 0.6525-0.6820. Resistance: 0.6670-0.6820
- USDCAD: Support: 1.3547-1.3500. Resistance: 1.3800-1.4020
- Gold (XAUUSD): Support: 3,325-3,040. Resistance: 3,385-3,535
- Brent: Support: 66.50-62.00. Resistance: 71.30-81.00
EURUSD forecast
Weekly EURUSD outlook for 28 July – 1 August 2025
The EURUSD pair traded mixed last week amid a contradictory macroeconomic backdrop, with pressure on the pair coming from:
- Moderately negative eurozone data, with continued contraction in manufacturing and weak inflation pushing expectations of dovish ECB signals
- Dollar strength supported by solid US labour market and industrial data, along with hawkish remarks from Fed officials
The market is now awaiting key releases: preliminary US Q2 GDP, PCE data, and Fed commentary. Any clues on rate changes could spike volatility.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair is consolidating near 1.1666. The current range stretches from 1.1555 to 1.1788. This week, a potential downward wave may develop towards 1.1500 (the first target), followed by a possible correction towards 1.1666 (testing from below). A Triangle is forming on the daily chart, hinting at a potential reversal. A breakout below the pattern’s lower boundary at 1.1500 (also the lower boundary of the growth channel from the 1.0180 low in January 2025) could trigger a decline towards 1.1150.
Targets:
- Target 1: 1.1500 – SMA50 support, possible bounce area
- Target 2: 1.1666 – possible retest zone
- With the price below the 1.1500 level, the trend could continue:
Wave 3: 1.1200
Wave 5: 1.1150
In case of a steady decline, the price could reach 1.0966 and even 1.0530, where a strategic support level lies.
Alternative scenario: a breakout above 1.1790 could trigger a recovery towards 1.1850-1.1880.
The SMA50 near 1.1500 acts as an intermediate support level.
Weekly outlook:
Bearish (base case):
- A breakout below 1.1666 could extend the drop to 1.1500, then 1.1340, 1.1200, 1.1150
- A breakout below 1.1500 would strengthen the bearish move
Bullish (alternative):
- If the 1.1500 level holds and the price rebounds from it, the pair could pull back to 1.1666. A breakout above 1.1666 would open the way for further growth to 1.1850-1.1880
USDJPY forecast
Weekly USDJPY outlook for 28 July – 1 August 2025
The US dollar remains firm amid strong macroeconomic performance: solid GDP growth, a tight labour market, and inflation above target strengthen expectations that the Fed may maintain high rates for longer despite statements signalling an end to rate hikes.
Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan sticks to ultra-loose policy. Normalisation efforts have yet to materially affect the yen.
The 151.00-152.00 area remains a key risk factor – historically viewed by Japanese authorities as excessive yen weakness. If the price approaches this area, verbal or direct intervention by Japan’s Ministry of Finance becomes more likely.
Additional support for the dollar could come from rising 10-year US Treasury yields, making US assets more attractive than Japanese ones and keeping the USDJPY pair in an overall uptrend.
Technical analysis:
The daily chart shows a corrective structure within the fourth wave of the broader uptrend. The price is expected to decline to 145.65 next week, supported by the SMA50. The fifth upward wave may then start towards 151.20. The entire growth structure is perceived as a correction to the previous drop from 158.80 to 140.00. After completion, the trend could continue down to 141.00.
Forecast scenarios:
Bullish scenario: a breakout above 148.50 would open the potential for a further move towards 151.20 – a 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline.
Bearish scenario: a reversal structure at 151.20 could trigger a drop to 146.00, then further down to 145.00. The 146.00 level is crucial for bears as a breakout below it could push the USDJPY rate to the 140.00 area.
GBPUSD forecast
Weekly GBPUSD outlook for 28 July – 1 August 2025
The GBPUSD pair remains under pressure amid persistent divergence in monetary policy between the Bank of England and the US Federal Reserve. Despite maintaining the interest rate at 5.25%, the UK regulator has begun to adopt a more cautious tone. Weak retail sales data and slowing inflation reinforce expectations of possible policy easing in Q4.
The US sees macroeconomic stability, with the labour market remaining strong, and the PCE index (the Fed’s key inflation indicator) decelerating but remaining above the target level. This strengthens the US dollar ahead of the August FOMC meeting, where another rate hike or continued tight policy until December cannot be ruled out.
Additional pressure on the pound comes from political instability: growing protests against tax policy and falling business activity indices in the services sector (PMI) add pessimism for investors.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, the GBPUSD pair continues to form a downward wave. After breaking below 1.3525 and consolidating beneath it, the market opened the path to the first target at 1.3270. After the price reaches this target level, a growth wave is expected to start, aiming for 1.3530 as the second target. A Diamond reversal pattern could develop.
The weekly pivot point (PP) is at 1.3530, a zone of confrontation between buyers and sellers. The price is trading below the SMA50, strengthening the argument for the bearish scenario. A recovery above 1.3600 and subsequent breakout above 1.3660 could cancel the bearish scenario and return the market to growth, with targets at the 1.3800-1.4000 area.
Forecast scenarios:
Bearish scenario (baseline):
The 5-wave downward scenario remains valid:
- The current first wave may complete around 1.3270, followed by a correction (the second wave) towards 1.3530 before the movement continues to the 1.3030 and 1.2770 targets (the third and fifth waves)
Bullish scenario (alternative):
A steady consolidation above 1.3600 would open the potential for a move towards 1.3660, which may trigger a new uptrend
- Targets: 1.3800, 1.4000, and with strong momentum up to 1.4160
AUDUSD forecast
Weekly AUDUSD outlook for 28 July – 1 August 2025
The Australian dollar remains sensitive to global demand for commodities and risk appetite. With stabilisation in commodity markets and easing concerns over China, demand for the AUD has received support. Domestic economic data in Australia remains mixed: inflation is slowing, while the labour market remains resilient.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) takes a wait-and-see approach, keeping rates at the current level. However, the market expects a possible softening of rhetoric by year-end, which limits the potential for AUDUSD to strengthen. Additional influence comes from USD dynamics – any signals from the Fed about ending the tightening cycle support corrective moves in favour of AUDUSD.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, the AUDUSD pair continues to develop a growth wave towards 0.6670. After reaching this level, the price could decline towards 0.6525, which now acts as the weekly pivot point. Support is also strengthened by the presence of the SMA50 in this zone, which may lead AUDUSD to the next target at 0.6820. Further, the priority is a move towards 0.6670; if it breaks, a test of 0.6622 is possible.
However, if buyers manage to return the price above 0.6670, there will be a prospect of growth to 0.6969, provided there is sustained demand for risk and commodity assets.
Forecast scenarios:
Bullish scenario (baseline):
A confident consolidation above 0.6550 may send the price to 0.6670
Upside targets:
- 0.6820, local target of the growth wave
- 0.6670, support level
- 0.6969, senior target (extended fifth wave)
Bearish scenario (alternative):
A consolidation below 0.6500 confirms the end of the correction
Downside targets:
- 0.6400, the first target
- 0.6262, a local target
- 0.6180, the main target for the first downward wave of the trend
USDCAD forecast
Weekly USDCAD outlook for 28 July – 1 August 2025
The Canadian dollar remains under pressure due to mixed macroeconomic signals. Amid moderate recovery in oil prices and stable demand for energy from China and India, the CAD receives short-term support. However, the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy outlook limits the loonie’s strengthening: inflation expectations are declining, and economic activity is slowing.
In contrast, the US continues to show stable data on the labour market and consumption, supporting the USD. Expectations of the Fed maintaining high interest rates increase upward pressure on USDCAD, despite corrective fluctuations. Thus, the fundamental background remains moderately favourable for the USD, with potential fluctuations as oil strengthens and Canadian statistics weaken.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, the USDCAD pair continues to develop a consolidation range around 1.3660. Currently, the range has expanded down to 1.3575 and up to 1.3725. A decline to 1.3548 is possible. Later, another growth structure could develop, aiming for 1.3800. The entire growth structure fits within the correction of the downward wave from 1.4020.
The long-term picture retains a neutral-to-bearish bias. Even a breakout above 1.3840 may only extend the correction to 1.4020. Subsequently, the downtrend will continue towards at least 1.3500. Therefore, the current structure looks more like a correction within the dominant downtrend.
Forecast scenarios:
Bearish scenario (baseline):
Consolidation below 1.3660 will add to pressure on the pair
Targets:
- 1.3547, correction target and potential reversal point
- 1.3800, intermediate target
- 1.3500, completion zone of the third downward wave (on a higher timeframe)
Bullish scenario (alternative):
Consolidation above 1.3700 opens growth potential towards 1.3800-1.3838. The primary correction target in this case would be 1.4020.
XAUUSD forecast
Weekly XAUUSD outlook for 28 July – 1 August 2025
The gold market continues to balance between conflicting factors. On the one hand, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and East Asia persist, along with political uncertainty regarding the upcoming US presidential elections, which supports demand for safe-haven assets.
On the other hand, the US dollar remains firm thanks to strong macroeconomic performance and expectations of prolonged high interest rates from the Fed. This puts pressure on gold, reducing its appeal as an alternative asset. In the short term, gold remains sensitive to inflation data and Fed comments. Stronger signals about the continuation of hawkish policy may trigger a short-term decline in XAUUSD prices.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, gold continues to develop a consolidation range around the 3,330 level. This current structure is forming a top in the shape of a Symmetrical Triangle. This pattern is viewed as a potentially strong signal for the formation of a major correction. A breakout below the 3,320 level will confirm the reversal scenario, targeting the 3,250-3,240 area, which marks significant support. Subsequently, prices could rise to the 3,330 level. With a breakout below this range, the trend could extend to the 3,060 level, the first target in this corrective wave.
Forecast scenarios:
Bullish scenario (alternative):
A confident consolidation above 3,385 will open the door for a move towards the following targets:
- 3,500, a key May resistance level
- 3,535, a potential upper boundary of the extended fifth wave
Bearish scenario (baseline):
A breakout and consolidation below 3,320 will open the way for a wave with targets at:
- 3,250, an intermediate support level
- 3,060-3,050, an area of technical and fundamental correction
Brent forecast
Weekly Brent outlook for 28 July – 1 August 2025
The oil market maintains a moderately positive sentiment despite signs of local overbought conditions. Prices are bolstered by:
- Strict OPEC+ discipline on supply cuts, despite calls from consumers to increase production
- Signs of recovering fuel demand in China and India
- Decline in US commercial oil inventories according to the latest EIA report
However, risks remain. The strengthening of the US dollar and rising global interest rates constrain appetite for commodity assets, especially in the face of a possible slowdown in US GDP growth in the second half of the year due to tariffs and supply chain disruptions.
Technical analysis:
On the daily chart, Brent oil consolidates around 68.60, forming a plateau pattern within an upward structure. The nearest downside target lies in the 66.55 area. The SMA50 also supports the trend here, acting as dynamic support.
A breakout above 69.00 will open the path to 73.30, with potential movement to 76.00 and even 81.00, the possible target of the third wave on the higher timeframe. However, a breakout below 66.50 would be the first warning signal for continued correction towards 65.00.
Forecast scenarios:
Bullish scenario (baseline): holding above 66.50 confirms the validity of the upward trend.
Upside targets:
- 71.30, the nearest resistance level
- 73.30-76.00, an expansion area
- 81.00, the target of the third wave
Bearish scenario (alternative): a breakout and consolidation below 66.50 could trigger further correction
Downside targets:
- 65.00, a key support level
- 62.00, May consolidation low
Source: Roboforex
