Soft data on German Economy Points to Elevated Recession Risks

43879 soft data on german economy points to elevated recession risks

European equities ended the week on a positive note despite higher-than-expected interest rate hike from the European Central Bank and disappointing survey data on activity in German manufacturing and services sectors.

The ECB raised interest rates to zero percent on Thursday for the first time in 11 years, ending a negative interest rate policy in place since 2014

This increase was more than the expected 25 basis points, which suggests that ECB officials are very worried about inflation, as the eurozone Consumer Price Index now stands at a record 8.6% per annum. The ECB also decided to remove guidance which suggests that Euro sensitivity to economic data releases and comments of central banks officials will increase.

The latest data from the Eurozone PMI survey showed that growth in the region slowed, and this began even before the Central Bank began to tighten its monetary policy.

Germany’s key manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July, moving into the contraction zone and reaching its lowest level in 25 months, confirming forecasts that Europe’s largest economy is heading into recession in the second half of 2022.

Oil prices rose on Friday, consolidating after the recent sell-off amid weakening demand in the US, the world’s largest consumer of oil.

Data released earlier this week showed U.S. gasoline demand fell nearly 8% year-over-year at the height of the peak summer travel season, and this has weighed heavily on the price of WTI.

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Written by Arthur Idiatulin

Arthur is a stock market and currency expert with a vast experience in market research and investment consulting. Dedicated Forex trader and financial practitioner, keen on testing new trading techniques and investment strategies.


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