Daily Market Outlook, November 14, 2022

“Markets open the week on a slightly more cautious footing, comments from Fed member Waller cooled risk appetite as the Fed policymaker suggested that equity markets had over reacted to the inflation print as interest rates still had further to go to combat inflationary pressures. The outlier in Asian markets is seen in Chinese equities, which have opened the week with a positive tilt following announcements with respect to Covid restrictions and support for the ailing property sector. In the trading week ahead markets will be seeking further clarity on policy from major central banks, today's focus in the Eurozone will be on speeches from Nagel, Guindos, Centeno and Panetta, in the US it will be Fed speakers Williams and Brainard. The data slate is scant today, with September Industrial production the main focus in the Eurozone, with markets looking for a small gain of 0.7% month over month. In the UK markets eagerly await the much lauded Autumn statement, with the UK Chancellor Hunt making the media rounds over the weekend warning of ‘difficult decisions’ ahead in order to plug the fiscal holes in the national finances. For further insights into the fundaments and trading dynamics for the week ahead please review my Weekly Market Outlook video…”

Overnight Headlines

  • Dollar Steadies As Fed Cautions On Inflation – RTRS

  • FTX Collapse Being Scrutinised By Bahamas Authorities – RTRS

  • Emboldened Xi Jinping Steps Back On To World Stage With G20 Summit – FT

  • China Dials Back Property Restrictions In Bid To Reverse Economic Slide – WSJ

  • China’s Looser Covid Rules Face First Test With Surging Outbreak – BBG

  • Fed’s Waller Says There’s A ‘Ways To Go’ Before Rate Hikes Done – BBG

  • Fed Faces Tough Task Deciding When To Stop Raising Rates, Daly Warns – FT

  • Biden Rallies Yoon, Kishida As North Korean Missile Threat Grows – BBG

  • US Tries To Enlist Allies In Assault On China’s Chip Industry – FT

  • White House Official: Biden To Make Clear US Does Not Seek Conflict With China – RTRS

  • Some Russia Sanctions Could Extend Beyond Ukraine War’s End, Yellen Says – WSJ

  • Yellen Acknowledges ‘Spillovers’ From US Rates, Strong Dollar – BBG

  • US House Majority Undecided As Democrats Keep Senate Control – WSJ

  • Democratic Congressional Leaders Vow To Address US Debt Limit – RTRS

  • Pelosi Urges Debt-Ceiling Vote In Lame-Duck Session To Avoid Risk – BBG

  • IMF Chief Warns On US-China Rivalry, Calls Trump-Era Tariffs Counterproductive – RTRS

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3945

Technicals

  • Primary support is 3945

  • Primary upside objective is 4120

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050

  • Failure below 3935 opens a test of 3900

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0250

1.0284 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary support is 1.0250

  • Primary upside objective is 1.0466

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.0350

  • Failure below 1.02 opens a test of 1.0090

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0200 (483mln), 1.0300 (258mln), 1.0370 (361mln), 1.0390 (242mln)

GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1660

Technicals

  • Primary support is 1.1660

  • Primary upside objective 1.20

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.1865

  • Failure below 1.1730 opens a test of 1.1570

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1715 (557mln)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8800 (475mln)

USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 143.25

139.26 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary resistance is 143.25

  • Primary downside objective is 136

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 138

  • Acceptance above 142 opens a test of 143.10

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

  • Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: USD/JPY: 140.00 (510mln)

  • EUR/JPY: 146.00 (1.84bln) 

AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6550

.6720 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary support is .6660

  • Primary upside objective is .6760

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6700

  • Failure below .6600 opens a test of .6550

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: N/A

BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16800

Technicals

  • Intraday 157700 is primary support

  • Primary upside objective is 18325

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 17000

  • Failure below 15500 opens a test of 14400

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish