The GBPUSD pair is hovering around 1.2464 on Wednesday, with the pound appearing more stable than other currencies. More details in our analysis for 5 February 2025.
GBPUSD forecast: key trading points
- The GBPUSD pair has strengthened and is now consolidating
- The pound sterling is not afraid of possible US trade tariffs; investors expect a BoE interest rate cut
- GBPUSD forecast for 5 February 2025: 1.2494 and 1.2522
Fundamental analysis
The GBPUSD pair is consolidating around 1.2464 in the middle of the week. Since the beginning of the week, the pound looks better than other currencies as the market does not expect any serious implications for the UK economy from a trade war with the US, unlike Europe.
London has nearly nothing to lose after the possible introduction of US tariffs. UK exports to the US are estimated at less than 2%, with exports to China even less, about 1% of GDP.
The Bank of England will hold a meeting this week. The regulator is expected to lower the interest rate by 25 basis points. This decision may prompt the market to revise its forecasts for the future BoE monetary policy. The central bank itself expects inflation to rise in the coming months, so there is no need to accelerate the easing of fiscal conditions.
The GBPUSD forecast appears favourable.
GBPUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the GBPUSD pair has positive prospects, suggesting a pullback to 1.2494 followed by growth to 1.2522.
It is worth closely watching the intermediate support level at 1.2453. A decisive breakout below this level will pave the way to 1.2379.
Summary
The GBPUSD pair rose on Monday and Tuesday before it started to consolidate in the middle of the week. Overall, the pound’s position looks rather confident. The GBPUSD forecast for today, 5 February 2025, does not rule out growth to 1.2494 and then to 1.2522.
Source: Roboforex
