Amid the release of German CPI and US PPI data, the EURUSD rate may correct towards 1.0470 before declining. Discover more in our analysis for 13 February 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Germany’s Consumer Price Index (CPI): previously at 0.5%, projected at -0.2%
- US Producer Price Index (PPI): previously at 0.2%, projected at 0.3%
- US initial jobless claims: previously at 219 thousand, projected at 217 thousand
- EURUSD forecast for 13 February 2025: 1.0470 and 1.0350
Fundamental analysis
Germany’s CPI reflects changes in consumer prices of goods and services, helping assess changes in buying trends and economic stagnation. A higher-than-forecast reading typically has a positive effect on the national currency.
The forecast for 13 February 2025 suggests that the index may decline to -0.2% from the previous 0.5%. Fundamental analysis for 13 February 2025 takes into account that a decrease in Germany’s CPI may negatively impact the euro and a weaker-than-expected reading could cause the euro to further lose ground against the US dollar.
The PPI is an inflation gauge tracking the average price change for goods and services of domestic producers. The index records price changes from the sellers’ perspective and covers three production sectors: manufacturing, commodities, and processing. The PPI is often regarded as a leading inflation gauge for consumers, as rising producer costs for production and services typically filter through to consumers.
According to the forecast, US PPI data could rise slightly from the previous period, reaching 0.3%. Given today’s news, the EURUSD forecast for today suggests a correction before a decline.
US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment. The previous reading was 219 thousand. The forecast for 13 February 2025 appears rather optimistic as jobless claims are expected to decrease to 217 thousand.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD price formed an Inverted Hammer reversal pattern near the lower Bollinger band. At this stage, it continues its upward trajectory following the signal received. Since the quotes remain within a descending channel, the correction is expected to continue to the nearest resistance at 1.0470. A rebound from this level will open the potential for the development of a downtrend.
However, the price could plunge to the 1.0350 support level and gain downward momentum without testing the resistance level.
Summary
Along with the EURUSD technical analysis, the release of US and EU fundamental data suggests a correction towards 1.0470 before a decline.
Source: Roboforex
