In anticipation of US employment data, USDJPY quotes may correct to the 144.50 level. Details – in our analysis for 2 July 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Change in US nonfarm employment from ADP: previous value – 37K, forecast – 99K
- BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda awaits inflation data
- USDJPY forecast for 2 July 2025: 144.50 and 142.65
Fundamental analysis
The number of employees in the US nonfarm sector from ADP for the forecast on 2 July 2025 is expected to increase to 99K, but this remains only a forecast and a hope. In the previous month, employment numbers fell significantly, and current figures, contrary to the forecast, may be no exception.
The USDJPY forecast for today considers that if the actual figure comes out worse than expected, this will add negativity to the US dollar. However, if the actual figure exceeds the forecast, the USDJPY rate may continue to rise towards 144.50.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda is in no hurry to make statements regarding interest rate changes, as he continues gathering information on inflation indicators. At present, Japan’s core inflation remains below 2%, while the overall inflation rate is above 2%. Kazuo Ueda hopes to equalise both indicators at the 2% level by the end of his term in 2028.
USDJPY technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the USDJPY price, after testing the lower Bollinger Band, formed a reversal Hammer pattern and is now around the 143.60 mark. At this stage, it continues the corrective wave within the pattern signal’s realisation. USDJPY quotes remain within the downward channel, suggesting they still have a chance to reach resistance at 144.50.
However, the USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative market scenario – with the price falling to the 142.65 level without testing the resistance.
Summary
Amid the uncertainty from the Bank of Japan’s governor, USDJPY quotes are forming a correction. The USDJPY technical analysis suggests considering a scenario where the correction wave develops towards the 144.50 level before declining.
Source: Roboforex
