Amid the US trade wars with the rest of the world, the USDJPY pair may continue its rise towards 148.30. Find more details in our analysis for 14 July 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Japan’s industrial production: previously at -1.1%, currently at -0.1%
- The 25% tariff for Japan is seen as a token gesture from the US
- USDJPY forecast for 14 July 2025: 148.30
Fundamental analysis
President Trump announced 30% tariffs on goods from the European Union and Mexico, while offering a relative concession to Japan by imposing a lower 25% tariff. Against this backdrop, the US dollar continues to strengthen against the yen.
Fundamental analysis for 14 July 2025 considers the possibility that the USD may act as a safe-haven asset for investors. However, this scenario may not last long. If the EU, Japan, or other countries introduce retaliatory measures, the USD may start to lose ground as investors shift towards alternative safe-haven options.
Japan’s industrial production figure for the latest reporting period came in at -0.1%, compared to the previous -1.1%. While this indicates an improvement, the indicator remains in negative territory, which is not very positive for the USDJPY rate.
USDJPY technical analysis
Having tested the upper Bollinger Band, the USDJPY pair formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern on the H4 chart and currently trades around 147.30. At this stage, a corrective wave may form in response to the signal from the pattern. The USDJPY price remains within an upward channel, suggesting that the pair may have room to reach the support at 147.00.
However, today’s USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario, where the price continues to rise towards 148.30 without correction.
Summary
The USDJPY forecast leans in favour of the US dollar, although technical analysis suggests the pair may first correct towards support around 147.00 before continuing its upward movement.
Source: Roboforex
