Expected growth in US nonfarm employment and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision are pushing the USDJPY pair lower towards the 147.15 level. Find out more in our analysis for 30 July 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- US ADP nonfarm employment change: previously at -33 thousand, projected at 77 thousand
- US Federal Reserve interest rate decision: previously at 4.5%, projected at 4.5%
- USDJPY forecast for 30 July 2025: 147.15 and 149.00
Fundamental analysis
According to the forecast for 30 July 2025, the US ADP nonfarm employment change should increase to 77 thousand. However, this remains a projection and not a certainty. In the previous month, the figure dropped significantly, and the upcoming data may again disappoint despite optimistic estimates.
Today’s USDJPY forecast factors in that if the actual employment number exceeds expectations, it could support the US dollar. Conversely, if the result falls short of the forecast, the USDJPY rate may tumble further towards 147.15.
Fundamental analysis for 30 July 2025 also focuses on the Federal Reserve’s rate decision due later today. The current rate stands at 4.5%, and based on previous Fed statements and market forecasts, analysts expect no change.
Although the rate has been reviewed several times this year, it has remained unchanged. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates, the USDJPY pair could see a spike in volatility.
USDJPY technical analysis
Having tested the upper Bollinger Band, the USDJPY pair formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the 147.80 level on the H4 chart. The price may now extend its corrective wave as this pattern plays out. Since the USDJPY pair continues to trade within the ascending channel, a further decline towards the support line appears likely as part of the ongoing correction.
However, the USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario, where the pair rises to 149.00 without testing the support level.
Summary
Ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting and rate decision, the US dollar continues to weaken. USDJPY technical analysis suggests a continuation of the corrective move towards the 147.10 support level.
Source: Roboforex
