The USDJPY outlook is at a tipping point. With US economic indicators pressuring the dollar, a rally towards 149.00 is possible. Find out more in our analysis for 4 August 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- US factory orders: previously at 8.2%, projected at -4.9%
- Current trend: upward impulse remains possible
- USDJPY forecast for 4 August 2025: 149.00
Fundamental analysis
The release of actual US employment data triggered a USD sell-off. After testing the 150.00 level, the USDJPY rate dropped significantly and currently trades around 147.00.
Japan’s Ministry of Finance expressed concern over increased yen volatility and sharp rate swings. However, the Bank of Japan believes the current JPY exchange rate does not influence inflation, indirectly hinting that a yen intervention is unlikely in the near term. The central bank also suggests that a change in interest rates is improbable anytime soon.
Today’s USDJPY forecast takes into account that US factory orders may decline to -4.9% in the current reporting period. If the actual reading aligns with the forecast, it would mark the lowest level of factory orders this year. Given the economic data, the USDJPY outlook for 4 August 2025 remains neutral, with nearly equal chances of either a rise or a decline in price.
USDJPY technical analysis
Having tested the lower Bollinger Band, the USDJPY pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern on the H4 chart, now trading around 147.70. At this stage, the pair may continue its upward wave following the signal from the pattern. The USDJPY pair remains within an ascending channel, which suggests the pair could still rise towards the resistance line.
However, the USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario, with the price dipping to 147.15 without a corrective rebound.
Summary
US economic indicators weigh on the USD, yet USDJPY technical analysis suggests a potential rebound from the support line, targeting the 149.00 level.
Source: Roboforex
