With Japan’s PMI declining and the US PMI remaining uncertain, the USDJPY rate may reach 149.00. Find out more in our analysis for 21 August 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- Japan’s services PMI: previously at 53.6, currently at 52.7
- US services PMI: previously at 49.8, projected at 49.7
- USDJPY forecast for 21 August 2025: 149.00
Fundamental analysis
Fundamental analysis for 21 August 2025 shows the USDJPY pair holding steady, trading sideways near 147.40.
Japan’s services PMI covers a wide range of industries, including transport and communications, financial intermediation, business and household services, IT, hospitality and restaurants.
The USDJPY forecast for today does not appear optimistic for the yen, with the PMI down to 52.7 from the previous reading. Although the figure remains above the 50.0 threshold, which indicates expansion, the yen continues to lose ground against the US dollar.
In the US, the services PMI is forecast to ease slightly from 49.8 to 49.7. While such a move may not be critical, it is important to note that forecasts can diverge significantly from actual results, which could either strengthen or weaken the USD.
USDJPY technical analysis
Having tested the lower Bollinger Band, the USDJPY pair formed a Hammer reversal pattern near 147.40 on the H4 chart. At this stage, the pair may continue its upward trajectory in line with the pattern’s signal. The USDJPY rate remains within an ascending channel, which supports the case for growth towards resistance near 149.00.
At the same time, the USDJPY forecast also considers an alternative scenario where the price dips to 146.50 before resuming its upward movement.
Summary
Fundamental data currently favours the USD, while USDJPY technical analysis points to growth towards 149.00.
Source: Roboforex