The USDCAD rate declined towards the 1.3700 area amid the current weakness of the US dollar. This week’s focus is on US labour market data. Discover more in our analysis for 1 September 2025.
USDCAD forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: traders await US labour market data this week
- Current trend: moving downwards
- USDCAD forecast for 1 September 2025: 1.3800 or 1.3600
Fundamental analysis
The Bank of Canada has kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2.75% since March. The recent removal of retaliatory tariffs on US goods may be seen as a sign of cooperation, potentially easing inflationary pressure and giving the Bank of Canada more flexibility in monetary policy decisions.
This week, the spotlight is on US labour market data, with Nonfarm Payrolls (expected to rise by 74 thousand) and the unemployment rate (forecast at 4.3%) scheduled for release. Strong employment statistics could support the US dollar, while weaker data may instead boost the Canadian dollar and push the USDCAD pair lower.
USDCAD technical analysis
The USDCAD H4 chart shows a bearish trend. The Alligator indicator is confidently pointing downwards, confirming the current downtrend. The key support level that could temporarily halt the decline is at the daily level of 1.3720.
The short-term USDCAD forecast suggests a continued decline if bears manage to push quotes below 1.3720. However, if bulls regain control and hold above this support level, an upward correction could begin.
Summary
The USDCAD rate is falling, testing the 1.3720 support level. This week, the market’s focus is on upcoming US employment statistics.
Source: Roboforex