The EURUSD pair stalled around 1.1652. The market now has to digest all the details of the labour market reports. Find out more in our analysis for 4 September 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- The EURUSD pair is closely watching the news flow
- Volatility will remain high until Friday, when the full set of US labour market data is released
- EURUSD forecast for 4 September 2025: 1.1740
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate is volatile and stands at 1.1652 on Thursday. Investors are awaiting fresh labour market data that may determine the Fed’s rate trajectory.
The focus is on the ADP private payrolls report, where slower hiring is expected, as well as new weekly jobless claims figures. The key event of the week will be the August Nonfarm Payrolls release on 5 September, which will set the near-term direction for markets.
Dollar pressure increased after the JOLTS report showed job openings falling to 7.18 million, the lowest since September 2024 and below forecasts of 7.4 million. An additional downside came from July factory orders, which fell for the second consecutive month. Against this backdrop, the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen to nearly 98%. This strengthens expectations of a dovish policy and limits the US dollar’s upside potential.
The EURUSD outlook is mixed.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair is trading within a range defined by key levels. Resistance is seen at 1.1682 and 1.1742. Attempts to break above these levels have so far failed, as sellers step in. Support is located at 1.1608 and 1.1572. These zones held firm in August and remain key for buyers.
The Stochastic (5,3,3) indicator is hovering near neutral territory, pointing to potential fluctuations without a clear trend. MACD remains in negative territory, reflecting a weakened bullish impulse.
Overall, the EURUSD pair maintains sideways dynamics within a 1.1570-1.1740 range. For bulls, breaking above the 1.1740 level is critical to move into growth territory. A drop below 1.1608 would increase pressure and open the way to 1.1570 and lower.
Summary
The EURUSD pair has reacted to the data, but more is yet to come. The EURUSD forecast for today, 4 September 2025, suggests another attempt to break above 1.1740.
Source: Roboforex