The downward correction in the US Tech stock index is coming to an end. The US Tech forecast for next week is positive.
US Tech forecast: key trading points
- Recent data: US initial jobless claims for last week came in at 237 thousand
- Market impact: the effect on the US stock market may be mixed as unemployment data is still ahead
US Tech fundamental analysis
Initial jobless claims in the US reached 237 thousand compared to the forecast of 230 thousand and the previous 229 thousand. The figure is moderately above expectations and confirms a gradual softening of the labour market: layoffs are becoming more frequent and employment momentum is cooling. The level itself remains far from recessionary territory, but the trend indicates less economic overheating and weaker wage-driven inflationary pressure.
US Initial Jobless Claims: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/jobless-claims
On the one hand, a softer labour market reduces inflation risks and increases the likelihood of earlier Federal Reserve policy easing, which supports equity valuations through lower Treasury yields. On the other hand, if jobless claims continue to rise, concerns over economic growth and corporate earnings will mount, limiting risk appetite.
US Tech technical analysis
The technology sector is sensitive to discount rates: falling yields typically expand multiples and support large growth companies, cloud services, and software with predictable subscription flows. However, worsening macroeconomic expectations may cool cyclical tech segments, particularly semiconductors and equipment, where demand depends on clients’ capital expenditure. Internet platforms and advertising benefit from steady consumer demand, while signs of a slowdown would have a neutral-to-negative effect. SaaS and cloud are relatively resilient due to their contractual model, yet remain rate-sensitive. Hardware manufacturers stay reliant on investment cycles.
US Tech technical analysis for 5 September 2025
The US Tech index broke below the previous support level at 23,465.0, with a new support line formed at 23,030.0. Resistance stands at 23,875.0. The downtrend is nearing completion, and the price will likely break above the resistance level, with the next upside target at 24,460.0.
The following scenarios are considered for the US Tech price forecast:
- Pessimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout below the 23,030.0 support level could push the index to 22,390.0
- Optimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout above the 23,875.0 resistance level could boost the index to 24,460.0
Summary
The persistence of deviations is critical: several weeks with claims above 250 thousand would strengthen the signal of slowing employment. The market will compare data with the jobs report, inflation indicators, and Treasury yield dynamics. Lower yields would likely support the US Tech index; however, if recession fears intensify, valuation effects could be offset by weaker profit expectations. The nearest upside target remains at 24,460.0.
Source: Roboforex