The USDJPY pair remains under pressure, while the reduction of US tariffs on Japanese cars strengthens the yen. The current rate is 148.19. Find out more in our analysis for 5 September 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- US President Donald Trump signed a decree lowering tariffs on Japanese cars, supporting the yen
- Wage data boosted expectations of policy tightening by the Bank of Japan
- The Coincident Index fell to 113.3 in July 2025
- USDJPY forecast for 5 September 2025: 149.85
Fundamental analysis
The USDJPY rate is declining after testing the upper boundary of its sideways range. The yen found support after news that US President Donald Trump signed a decree lowering tariffs on Japanese cars. This decision reduced pressure on the auto industry, a key export sector for Japan, and positively impacted the broader economy.
Domestic data also favoured the yen. Real wages in August turned positive for the first time since December, supported by steady base pay growth and generous summer bonuses. This data reinforced expectations of further BoJ tightening. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed on Wednesday that plans for a rate hike remain intact if economic forecasts materialise.
At the same time, Japan’s Coincident Index, which reflects industrial production, employment, and retail sales, fell to 113.3 in July 2025 from a revised 115.9 a month earlier, signalling ongoing weak spots in the economy.
USDJPY technical analysis
The USDJPY pair is trading near the upper boundary of its sideways range formed by a horizontal resistance level at 148.80. The current correction suggests a potential pullback towards the lower boundary of the ascending channel around 147.80, where a new upside reversal point may form.
Today’s USDJPY forecast anticipates a continued corrective decline with the risk of retesting the 147.80 support level, followed by a renewed attempt to rise towards 149.85. The Stochastic Oscillator has turned down from overbought territory, confirming the likelihood of short-term downside movement.
An additional bearish factor is the buyers’ failure to secure a breakout above 148.80, strengthening the scenario of a local decline before a potential resumption of growth.
Summary
The USDJPY rate remains under pressure amid weak macroeconomic indicators, but expectations of a BoJ rate hike could trigger a new bullish impulse. USDJPY technical analysis suggests a continued corrective decline, with the price possibly testing the 147.80 support level before rebounding towards 149.85.
Source: Roboforex