Ahead of the ECB decision, the EURUSD rate may fall towards 1.1660. Discover more in our analysis for 11 September 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- ECB interest rate decision
- US initial jobless claims: previously at 237 thousand, projected at 235 thousand
- EURUSD forecast for 11 September 2025: 1.1660 and 1.1775
Fundamental analysis
The forecast for 11 September 2025 does not appear very promising for the euro, as preliminary expectations suggest the ECB may keep the interest rate unchanged at 2.15%. For the euro, this could be a negative factor. Higher interest rates generally attract foreign investors, and leaving them unchanged may trigger a short-term capital outflow from the eurozone and reduce demand for the single currency.
ECB President Christine Lagarde and other board members are likely to pause and acknowledge that inflation is close to the 2% target, but they will also consider external risks such as trade disputes, geopolitics, and weak demand.
If the rate remains unchanged, the ECB may hint that should economic indicators deteriorate or growth remain weak, a rate cut later in 2025 could be on the table.
Much attention will be paid to macroeconomic forecasts – inflation, unemployment, and GDP growth. Markets are looking for guidance on how the ECB sees the next 12–18 months: whether growth is sustainable and if inflation is likely to remain above or drop below target.
The EURUSD forecast also takes into account that US initial jobless claims may decrease to 235 thousand from 237 thousand previously. While the decline is not critical, a stronger-than-expected figure may support the USD and trigger a drop in EURUSD.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair has formed a Hanging Man reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, the pair continues to develop a downward wave in line with the signal received. Given that the price remains within the ascending channel, there are still chances for a decline towards the nearest support level at 1.1660. A rebound from this area would open the way for a continuation of the uptrend.
However, the EURUSD rate could rise towards 1.1775 without first testing the support level.
Summary
The EURUSD forecast for today favours the USD, as the ECB’s interest rate decision may weaken the euro. At the same time, EURUSD technical analysis suggests a decline towards the 1.1660 support level before growth.
Source: Roboforex