The US Tech index is trading in a downtrend amid strong US labour market data. The US Tech forecast for next week is negative.
US Tech forecast: key trading points
- Recent data: the US unemployment rate for September came in at 4.4%
- Market impact: the current data carries mixed implications for the tech sector
US Tech fundamental analysis
The US economy added 119 thousand nonfarm jobs, above expectations of 53 thousand and the previous reading of -4 thousand, meaning the labour market recovered confidently after a weak month. At the same time, unemployment rose to 4.4%, exceeding expectations of 4.3% and the previous 4.3%. This means the economy continues to generate new jobs, while the number of people actively seeking but not immediately finding work is also increasing.
US unemployment rate: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
Overall, for the US stock market, this is a mixed but generally moderately positive signal. Strong NFP reduces fears of a sharp recession: after negative data in the previous month, some expected a further collapse, but a gain of 119 thousand alleviates those concerns. Companies continue to hire, business activity remains steady, and consumer demand is bolstered by household income. This supports expectations for corporate revenue and earnings.
US Tech technical analysis
For the US Tech index, the report’s impact is especially tied to bond yields and rate expectations. The tech sector is sensitive to the cost of capital: the higher long-term yields rise, the stronger the pressure on valuations of companies whose value depends on future profits. If investors focus on the idea that the economy remains strong and the Fed may keep rates high for longer, yields could rise, putting short-term pressure on tech stocks. However, if the market emphasises rising unemployment and signs of gradual labour-market cooling, the logic may flip: the Federal Reserve may not need to tighten further, meaning the probability of looser financial conditions remains, supporting interest in the tech sector.
US Tech technical analysis for 21 November 2025
The US Tech index has entered a fairly strong downtrend, falling by more than 8% from its all-time high. The nearest resistance level is now at 24,920.0. The 24,655.0 support level has been broken, and a new one has not yet formed. The next downside target may be 23,060.0.
The US Tech price forecast outlines the following scenarios:
- Pessimistic US Tech scenario: if the price consolidates below the breached support level at 24,655.0, the index could decline to 23,060.0
- Optimistic US Tech scenario: a breakout above the 24,920.0 resistance level could push the index to 25,730.0
Summary
Immediate recession risks are diminishing, which is supportive for risk assets, including major tech companies. At the same time, the data does not point to a new wave of aggressive rate hikes – only to a gradual cooling of the economy. In the coming days, this may lead to fluctuations in the index due to shifting expectations for bond yields and Fed actions. The next downside target for the US Tech index may be 23,060.0.
Source: Roboforex