Weekly technical analysis and forecast (9–13 March 2026)

This weekly technical analysis highlights the key chart patterns and levels for EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, AUDUSD, USDCAD, gold (XAUUSD), and Brent crude oil to forecast market moves for the upcoming week (9–13 March 2026).

Major technical levels to watch this week

• EURUSD: Support: 1.1530, 1.1345. Resistance: 1.1655, 1.1755
• USDJPY: Support: 157.15, 156.45. Resistance: 159.45, 161.565
• GBPUSD: Support: 1.3255, 1.3125. Resistance: 1.3425, 1.3585
• AUDUSD: Support: 0.6915, 0.6755. Resistance: 0.7055, 0.7145
• USDCAD: Support: 1.3605, 1.3505. Resistance: 1.3715, 1.3855
• Золото: Support: 4,910, 4,735. Resistance: 5,255, 5,440
• Brent: Support: 82.05, 78.05. Resistance: 90.05, 93.35

EURUSD forecast

The EURUSD pair ended the week with a sharp decline of more than 1.5%. Investors are assessing the impact of the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East and rising inflation risks in the region. Tensions intensified after reports that US President Donald Trump urged Kurdish forces in Iraq to put pressure on Iran, while Azerbaijan warned of a possible response to Iranian missile strikes.

Higher energy prices are weighing on the currencies of major oil-importing countries, which provides additional support to the US dollar. Markets have revised expectations for the timing of Fed policy easing, with investors now expecting the next rate cut in September or October, whereas a reduction had previously been expected as early as July. If the conflict remains highly intense, it may continue to support sustained pressure on global energy prices, which increases global inflation risks. Under such conditions, the Federal Reserve will likely be forced to maintain tight monetary conditions for longer, supporting demand for the US dollar and reducing the likelihood of an early shift to a rate-cutting cycle.

The EURUSD pair remains under pressure from geopolitical and inflationary factors. In the short term, the pair may continue to develop bearish momentum, while expectations of tighter ECB policy create potential for euro recovery in the medium term.

EURUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the EURUSD pair has consolidated below the bullish trendline, while sellers pushed quotes below the EMA-85, indicating stronger bearish pressure. According to the EURUSD weekly forecast, the potential remains for the decline to continue towards 1.1375 after a rebound from the broken trendline.

MACD confirms bearish momentum: the histogram is falling and has broken below the zero line. The key condition for the bearish scenario this week will be consolidation below 1.1485. Such a signal will confirm a breakout below the local support level and open the way for a further EURUSD decline towards deeper targets.

The alternative scenario will be activated if the 1.1725 resistance level is broken. In this case, pressure from the bulls will intensify, and the quotes may return to the bullish channel, creating conditions for a correction towards 1.1825.

EURUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish scenario (baseline): a rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel will signal stronger pressure from the bears and indicate a renewed downward move with a target at 1.1375.

Bullish (alternative): a breakout above a local resistance level, with quotes consolidating above 1.1725, will be a signal for the bullish correction to resume.

USDJPY forecast

The USDJPY pair is rising for the third consecutive trading week, with buyers actively testing the key resistance level at 157.55. The US dollar remains in demand as a reserve currency amid the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, which pressures the yen.

Japan’s economy continues to face weak growth and persistently high inflation, largely driven by external risks and rising energy prices. The BoJ governor warned that the conflict may significantly affect the country’s economy, which strengthens expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged. Market participants are also closely monitoring developments in the military situation. The escalation of the conflict between the US and Iran continues.

Overall, the USDJPY pair remains under pressure from geopolitical and external economic factors. As long as the Bank of Japan keeps rates unchanged and the conflict in the Middle East continues, the yen will remain weak, pushing the USDJPY pair higher.

USDJPY technical analysis

On the daily chart, the USDJPY pair is showing moderate growth. Buyers are attempting to consolidate above a local resistance level, while the downward trendline has already been broken. According to the USDJPY weekly forecast, the potential remains for growth to continue towards 160.85 after a rebound from the upper boundary of the descending channel.

MACD confirms positive momentum: the histogram is rising steadily and has broken above the zero line, signalling stronger bullish pressure. The key condition for the bullish scenario this week will be consolidation above the 159.35 resistance level. Such a signal will open the door to further USDJPY growth towards higher targets.

The alternative scenario will be activated if the 156.25 support level is broken. In this case, the quotes will move outside the bullish channel, strengthening pressure from the sellers and creating risks of a decline towards the EMA-85.

USDJPY forecast scenarios

Bullish scenario (main): consolidation above the upper boundary of the Double Bottom reversal pattern and above the 157.75 level will indicate a high probability of strong growth towards 160.85.

Bearish scenario (alternative): if the quotes decline, break below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, and consolidate below 156.15, pressure from the bears will increase, opening the way for a further fall.

GBPUSD forecast

The GBPUSD rate continues to decline, although a strong support level remains in place at 1.3340. UK markets have revised interest rate expectations: the probability of a rate cut this month is now estimated at less than 20%, whereas before the conflict, the forecast exceeded 80%. Rate futures show less than a 50% chance of one cut by the end of 2026. Higher energy prices are limiting the scope for the Bank of England to ease monetary policy, which supports the pound at current levels and restrains its strengthening potential.

Domestic economic factors are also pressuring the currency. The UK’s Budget Office has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2026 from 1.4% to 1.1%. At the same time, the estimate does not yet fully account for possible shocks from a further rise in energy prices. Overall, the GBPUSD pair remains under pressure from geopolitical and inflationary factors. Higher energy prices are limiting the chances of BoE monetary easing, which supports the pound at current levels and restrains the currency’s potential appreciation.

GBPUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, GBPUSD quotes continue to decline within a downward channel. Sellers consolidated below the EMA-85, signalling continued bearish pressure. The GBPUSD weekly forecast suggests continued downward momentum, with a target at 1.3025.

MACD reflects a strong bearish impulse. The histogram is falling actively after breaking below the zero line, which signals stronger pressure from sellers. The key condition for the downward scenario will be consolidation below the local support level at 1.3265. Such a signal will confirm the breakout of the key support level and indicate the market’s readiness to continue the decline.

The alternative scenario will form if the upper boundary of the downward channel is broken and the price consolidates above 1.3465. In this case, the probability of a bullish correction will increase, with potential growth towards 1.3685.

GBPUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish scenario (main): after a rebound from the upper boundary of the downward channel at 1.3385, downward momentum is expected to resume, with a target near 1.3025.

Bullish scenario (alternative): strong price growth with a breakout above the upper boundary of the channel and consolidation above 1.3465 will indicate stronger pressure from buyers and create conditions for the upward move to continue.

AUDUSD forecast

The AUDUSD rate ended the week lower, breaking its winning streak. Pressure on the Australian currency increased amid worsening global risk sentiment due to the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Higher energy prices are increasing inflation risks and supporting demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset, which is strengthening the US currency and placing additional pressure on the AUDUSD pair.

In Australia, discussions continue regarding a possible rate increase. Market participants are assessing the impact of higher energy prices and global uncertainty on inflation and economic growth. At present, markets price in around a 30% probability of an RBA rate hike at the March meeting, while a May rate increase is already almost fully priced into market expectations.

Overall, the AUDUSD pair remains under pressure amid the strengthening US dollar and lower global risk appetite. Ongoing geopolitical tension and further rises in energy prices may intensify pressure on the Australian currency, pushing the quotes lower.

AUDUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the AUDUSD pair has consolidated below the lower boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern, indicating the beginning of the bearish scenario. The AUDUSD weekly forecast suggests a further decline to the target of 0.6755.

MACD confirms downward momentum: the histogram continues to decline confidently, signalling stronger pressure from sellers. The key condition for the downside scenario will be consolidation below 0.6905. Such a signal will confirm a breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel and open the way for a deeper decline.

The alternative scenario will be activated if the price breaks above the 0.7165 resistance level. In this case, pressure from buyers will intensify, creating conditions for the upward move to continue towards 0.7375.

AUDUSD forecast scenarios

Bearish scenario (baseline): a rebound from the lower boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern at 0.7015 will indicate a renewed decline in the currency pair, with a target near 0.6755.

Bullish scenario (alternative): a breakout of the resistance level with consolidation above 0.7165 will be a signal for the quotes to continue rising towards 0.7375, which will cancel the bearish reversal pattern.

USDCAD forecast

The USDCAD pair ended the trading week within a range, where it has remained for nearly five weeks. The upper boundary of the range lies near 1.3705, while the lower boundary is located around 1.3585. Despite the sharp rise in oil prices after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Canadian dollar failed to receive meaningful support. Demand for the US dollar as a safe-haven asset continues to dominate global markets, putting additional pressure on the Canadian currency.

Domestic economic factors also remain a restraining factor for the loonie. Q4 data confirmed a 0.6% contraction in Canada’s GDP, pointing to one of the weakest periods of economic activity since 2020. At the same time, the manufacturing PMI rose to 51 points in February, reaching its highest level in the past year. However, the positive impact of this data was partly offset by concerns that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East could disrupt supplies of a significant share of global oil output and increase inflationary pressure in the global economy.

USDCAD technical analysis

On the daily chart, the USDCAD pair continues a corrective move. The price remains below the EMA-85, suggesting continued selling pressure. According to the USDCAD weekly forecast, the pair is expected resume its downward movement, with a target near 1.3435 after rebounding from the upper boundary of the downward channel.

MACD points to a possible end to the corrective growth. The histogram has stopped rising and is beginning to decline, reflecting stronger bearish sentiment in the market. The key condition for the downside scenario will be consolidation below 1.3605, which will confirm a breakout below a local support level. An additional signal will be a decline below 1.3565, which will indicate a breakout from the bullish corrective channel and increase the potential for a further fall.

The alternative scenario will be activated if the 1.3805 resistance level is broken. Such a signal will indicate a breakout above the upper boundary of the downward channel and create conditions for continued growth.

USDCAD forecast scenarios

Bearish scenario (main): after a rebound from the upper boundary of the downward channel at 1.3715, selling pressure is expected to intensify, with a downside target at 1.3435. A breakout below the lower boundary of the range at 1.3605 will confirm the bearish scenario.

Bullish scenario (alternative): if quotes rise strongly and break above the upper boundary of the downward channel with consolidation above 1.3805, the pair is expected to resume its upward move.

XAUUSD forecast

Gold broke its four-week rise, with quotes falling by more than 5% by the end of last week. Pressure on the metal increased amid the strengthening US dollar and concerns that rising energy prices would intensify inflation in the US economy.

As a result, market participants began actively cutting their gold positions, which triggered large-scale profit-taking after the prolonged rise in prices. Strong US macroeconomic indicators also gave additional support to the dollar. The latest data showed a decline in initial jobless claims, higher labour productivity, fewer layoffs, and stronger-than-expected growth in the service sector.

Overall, XAUUSD remains under pressure from the strengthening dollar and rising Treasury yields. Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, the revision of Fed rate expectations is limiting the short-term upside potential for gold.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the daily chart, XAUUSD quotes continue to decline, but remain within the long-term bullish channel. The potential remains for a Wedge reversal pattern to form. The weekly forecast suggests a rebound from the lower boundary of the reversal pattern, followed by a rise towards 5,440 USD.

MACD points to the continuation of the correction phase: the histogram is falling actively, signalling the likely completion of the decline before the start of a new bullish momentum. The key condition for the bullish scenario will be consolidation above 5,235 USD. Such a signal will confirm the breakout of the upper boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern and indicate continued growth in gold prices.

The alternative scenario will be activated if prices break the lower boundary of the channel and consolidate below 4,775 USD. This signal will indicate a breakout from a long-term ascending channel and may trigger a deep correction.

XAUUSD forecast scenarios

Bullish scenario (main): the potential for continued growth forms if the upper boundary of the Wedge reversal pattern is broken and quotes consolidate above 5,235 USD.

Bearish (alternative): if the lower boundary of the reversal pattern is broken and prices consolidate below 4,775 USD, this will open the door to a continued bearish correction in gold.

Brent forecast

Brent quotes have been rising for the third consecutive trading week. Increased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have significantly disrupted global oil flows and triggered higher energy prices. The escalation of the conflict has almost halted shipping through the key oil supply route, which under normal conditions handles about 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products per day. Commercial shipping has effectively stopped because of security risks, insurance problems, and high operational uncertainty.

Some producers have already started to cut output, which has intensified the supply deficit in the global market. Saudi Arabia also provided additional support to prices by raising its official selling prices for Asian buyers.

Overall, persistent geopolitical tensions and disruptions across key logistics routes continue to pressure the oil market and create potential for further growth in Brent quotes.

Brent technical analysis

On the daily chart, Brent quotes have consolidated above the upper boundary of the bullish channel, indicating strong buying pressure. The weekly Brent forecast suggests continued growth towards 98.55 after quotes rebound from the lower boundary of the bullish channel at 84.65 USD.

The MACD indicator confirms the aggressive upward movement: the histogram is rising actively, increasing bullish pressure. The absence of bearish divergence on MACD provides an additional signal in favour of further growth. The key condition for the bullish scenario this week will be price consolidation above 90.05 USD.

The bullish scenario will be invalidated if the market breaks below the support level and then consolidates below 80.15 USD. This will indicate a breakout below the lower boundary of the bullish channel and may trigger a correction in quotes.

Brent forecast scenarios

Bullish scenario (main): if the market rebounds from the lower boundary of the bullish channel at 84.55 USD, the potential remains for continued growth with a target at 98.55 USD.

Bearish scenario (alternative): if prices decline, break below the lower boundary of the bullish channel, and consolidate below 80.15 USD, the market is expected to continue to move downwards.

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