The AUDUSD pair remains under downward pressure, trading within a range amid expectations of RBA policy easing and the upcoming US inflation data. The rate currently stands at 0.6497. Discover more in our analysis for 24 October 2025.
AUDUSD forecast: key trading points
- Markets estimate the likelihood of an RBA rate cut in November at approximately 70%
- Business activity in Australia improved in October, supported by growth in the services sector
- Investors are focused on the upcoming US inflation report
- AUDUSD forecast for 24 October 2025: 0.6425
Fundamental analysis
The AUDUSD rate continues to drift lower, consolidating for the ninth consecutive session within a narrow range. Markets now estimate the likelihood of an RBA rate cut in November at approximately 70% following weaker-than-expected labour market data last week.
Recent indicators showed that business activity in Australia expanded in October due to steady growth in the services sector, while manufacturing output contracted after three consecutive months of expansion.
Investors are now awaiting the delayed US inflation report, postponed due to the ongoing government shutdown. The data is expected to confirm persistent inflationary pressures; however, it is unlikely to stop the Federal Reserve from cutting rates next week. Stronger-than-expected inflation figures could, however, affect the December rate outlook, dampening expectations for additional policy easing.
AUDUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD rate continues to consolidate within a descending channel, forming a Triangle pattern, which reflects prevailing market indecision. The forecast suggests a likely rebound from the pattern’s upper boundary, followed by continued decline to 0.6425.
The downside scenario is further confirmed by the Stochastic Oscillator, which turned down from overbought territory, signalling potential for a renewed bearish impulse.
A consolidation below 0.6470 would increase the likelihood of continued downside momentum and a breakout from the Triangle pattern.
Summary
The fundamental backdrop for the AUDUSD pair remains bearish, with risks tilted towards further declines if US CPI data comes in strong. AUDUSD technical analysis confirms prevailing bearish sentiment, with a high probability of a downward breakout from the Triangle pattern and a move towards the 0.6425 target.
Source: Roboforex