The AUDUSD pair slipped to 0.6425 on Friday. Weak economic data suggests the RBA may continue cutting interest rates. Discover more in our analysis for 30 May 2025.
AUDUSD forecast: key trading points
- The AUDUSD pair declined following the release of weak economic data
- Retail sales fell by 0.1% in April after a 0.3% rise in March
- Against this backdrop, the RBA is likely to maintain its dovish monetary stance
- AUDUSD forecast for 30 May 2025: 0.6420 and 0.6404
Fundamental analysis
The AUDUSD rate fell to 0.6425 by the end of the week and month, closing the week with a 1% loss. Weak domestic macroeconomic data weighed heavily on market sentiment.
Retail sales unexpectedly dropped by 0.1% in April following a 0.3% increase in March. Building permits also missed forecasts, intensifying concerns over domestic economic weakness.
These reports reinforced expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia will maintain a dovish policy path following its recent 25-basis-point rate cut. Key factors behind the RBA’s caution include risks from the US-China trade conflict and slowing inflation.
Additional pressure on the AUD came after a US appellate court reinstated tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump, overturning the prior ruling that declared them illegal.
The AUDUSD outlook is moderately negative.
AUDUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the AUDUSD pair appears poised to retest the local low at 0.6420. A breakout below this level would pave the way for a move down to 0.6404.
It is worth noting that the pair currently trades in oversold territory.
Summary
The AUDUSD pair has lost nearly 1% over the week and remains under pressure. The RBA is likely to continue easing policy. The AUDUSD forecast for today, 30 May 2025, anticipates further downside to 0.6420 and possibly 0.6404.
Source: Roboforex
