USDJPY is correcting near a key support level. Current quote – 144.16. Details – in our analysis for 30 June 2025.
USDJPY forecast: key trading points
- The US dollar weakened amid dovish signals from the Fed and trade uncertainty
- Japan’s industrial production rose by 0.5% in May
- Strong Tankan data could increase pressure on USDJPY
- USDJPY forecast for 30 June 2025: 142.75
Fundamental analysis
USDJPY continues to decline, but sellers face active resistance from buyers near the 143.75 support. The US dollar came under pressure amid dovish signals from the Fed and ongoing trade uncertainty.
Domestic Japanese statistics showed that industrial production in May 2025 rose by only 0.5% compared to the previous month, below expectations of 3.5%. Weak growth rates were due to the pressure from increased US tariffs, which continue to limit the export prospects of Japanese manufacturers.
Investors have focused their attention on the Bank of Japan’s quarterly Tankan survey, to be published on Tuesday. The report will provide a fuller picture of sentiment in the corporate sector and the overall state of the country’s economy. Strong data could strengthen sellers’ positions and lead to a breakout of the 143.75 level, making the USDJPY forecast even more bearish.
USDJPY technical analysis
USDJPY continues to decline within a short-term downtrend channel. After breaking the support level at 144.55, the quotes consolidated below the 65-period Moving Average, which increases bearish pressure on the pair. The quotes are trading near the support level at 143.75, with selling pressure persisting. The USDJPY forecast for today suggests further decline with a breakout of key support and a drop to the 142.75 level. The Stochastic Oscillator indicates a downward reversal, confirming the short-term downward impulse. A breakout of the 143.75 level will be key confirmation of the bearish scenario and will open the way to the next target near 142.75.
Summary
Fundamental factors increase pressure on USDJPY. If the Tankan survey results are strong and US employment data is weak, the pair has high potential for continued decline. Technical analysis of USDJPY confirms the preservation of the downtrend impulse, and a breakout of support at 143.75 could accelerate the move to the next target at 142.75.
Source: Roboforex
