Daily Market Outlook, November 11, 2022 

“Asian markets surged higher overnight, taking their lead from mammoth gains in US markets, with US equity markets adding three trillion dollars of value as US inflation softened. US CPI came in at 7.7% down from the prior print of 8.2%, with the core metric (excluding energy & food) coming in at 6.3% down from 6.6%. The softer data saw a ‘bad news, good news’ response from markets,, risk appetite abounded as markets viewed the data as giving cover to the FOMC to slow the rate of rate hikes and potentially lower the terminal rate, the Dollar dived, with the Yen advancing the most in a single session since 1998 as US yields collapsed. Fed speakers struck a cautious tone yesterday, maintaining their mantra of rate rises required to stem inflation risks. Market focus shifts to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment release due this afternoon, sentiment reached a six year high last month, supported by a robust labour market coupled with lower gasoline prices in the US also adding fuel to confidence, recent rises in gasoline prices may hamper expectations for today's print, with market watchers looking for a small pullback from the 59.9 last month to an anticipated 59.5 today…”

Overnight Headlines

  • SP500 & Nasdaq Add $3 Trillion In Value In A Single Day As Inflation Cools – RTRS

  • Dollar Dives As Investors Cheer After US Inflation Misses Forecasts – RTRS

  • Weakening Yen Trend May Be History As CPI Print Slams Dollar – BBG

  • FTX Looks For $9.4 Bln In Rescue Funds From Investors, Rivals – RTRS

  • FTX's US Crypto Exchange: Trading May Be Halted In A Few Days – BBG

  • FTX’s Assets Frozen By Bahamas Securities Regulator – BBG

  • China Eases Quarantine Rules, Flight Bans In Covid Zero Pivot – BBG

  • China Year-End Export Bounce In Doubt As Global Demand Falters – RTRS

  • China’s Bank Loans Lowest Since 2017 As Economy Slows – BBG

  • China May Inject Cash Soon As $139-Billion Maturity Wall Looms – BBG

  • Inflation Report Leaves Fed On Track For 0.5-Point Rate Rise In December – WSJ

  • Fed’s Mester Sees Larger Policy Risks From Too Little Tightening – BBG

  • Fed's George Calls For 'More Measured' Pace Of Rate Hikes – RTRS

  • Biden Seeks To Build 'Floor' For China Relations In Xi Meeting – RTRS

  • UK PM Sunak ‘Confident’ Of Fixing Post-Brexit Deal In N. Ireland – BBG

  • Rishi Sunak Considers ‘Growth Visas’ To Bring In Skilled Workers – Telegraph

  • Oil Crawls Higher On US Hopes, But COVID Rise In China Caps Gains – RTRS

  • Gold Eyes Best Week Since March On Hopes Of Less Aggressive Fed – RTRS

Technical & Trade Views

SP500 Bias: Bullish Above Bearish Below 3925

Technicals

  • Primary support is 3925

  • Primary upside objective is 4120

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 4050

  • Failure below 3915 opens a test of 3860

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

EURUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.0150

Technicals

  • Primary support is 1.0150

  • Primary upside objective is 1.0284

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.02

  • Failure below 1.0150 opens a test of 1.0090

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.0000 (1.87BLN), 1.0035 (499M), 1.0050-60 (1.1BLN) 1.0065 (303M), 1.0150 (331M), 1.0200 (609M)1.0240-50 (2.34BLN)

GBPUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 1.1640

Technicals

  • Primary support is 1.1640

  • Primary upside objective 1.20

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 1.18

  • Failure below 1.1620 opens a test of 1.1570

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 1.1600 (603M), 1.1850 (303M)

  • EUR/GBP: 0.8700 (319M), 0.8700 (349M), 0.8800 (330M)

USDJPY Bias: Bullish above Bearish Below 143.25

143.25 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary resistance is 143.25

  • Primary downside objective is 139.25

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance below 140

  • Acceptance above 143.85 opens a test of 145

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish

  • Today's New York Cut Option Expiries: 141.40 (315M), 141.75 (284M), 144.40-40 (550M)

AUDUSD Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below .6550

.6590 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

Technicals

  • Primary support is .6550

  • Primary upside objective is .6720

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above .6660

  • Failure below .6520 opens a test of .6460

  • 20 Day VWAP bullish, 5 Day VWAP bullish

  • Today’s New York Cut Option Expiries: 0.6475 (624M), 0.6575 (805M), 0.6600 (303M)

  • USD/CAD: 1.3620 (1.07BLN)

BTCUSD Bias: Intraday Bullish Above Bearish below 16800

Technicals

  • Intraday 16800 is primary support

  • Primary upside objective is 19300

  • Next pattern confirmation, acceptance above 18300

  • Failure below 16800 opens a test of 15500

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish, 5 Day VWAP bearish