The DE 40 stock index continues to correct after an uptrend. The DE 40 forecast for today is negative.
DE 40 forecast: key trading points
- Recent data: Germany’s balance of trade for June 2025 totalled 14.9 billion EUR
- Market impact: a decline in the trade balance compared to forecasts and previous figures signals a slowdown in export activity, which will negatively affect the shares of exporting companies
DE 40 fundamental analysis
Germany’s trade balance for June 2025 came in at 14.9 billion EUR, below the forecast of 17.8 billion EUR and the previous reading of 18.6 billion EUR. The trade balance is the difference between a country’s exports and imports over a certain period. A positive figure indicates that Germany exported more goods than it imported. A drop in the trade balance compared to both the forecast and the previous figures signals a slowdown in export activity. This may indicate weak external demand for German goods, which is a negative factor for the German economy and its large export-oriented companies.
The DE 40 index, which consists of the largest German companies, will come under pressure due to the worsening trade balance. Since most of the index companies operate in export-driven industries such as automotive, engineering, and chemical, a decline in exports will hurt their financial performance and negatively affect their share prices.
Germany balance of trade: https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-growth
DE 40 technical analysis
The DE 40 index broke below the support level with strong momentum. The resistance level has formed at 24,320.0, while support is located at 23,370.0. Although quotes are approaching the resistance level, a breakout is unlikely. In the short term, the downtrend is expected to dominate.
The DE 40 price forecast considers the following scenarios:
- Pessimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout below the 23,370.0 support level could send the index down to 22,845.0
- Optimistic DE 40 forecast: a breakout above the 24,320.0 resistance level could drive the index to 25,150.0
DE 40 technical analysis for 11 August 2025
Summary
The decline in the trade balance is a negative signal for the German economy and the shares of its largest companies. This could lead to a short-term decline in the DE 40 index, especially in export-oriented sectors, while more diversified or domestically focused companies will be less susceptible. Investors should factor this in when assessing risks in the German market in the near term. The next downside target for the index could be 22,845.0.
Source: Roboforex
