Technical & Trade View

US Dollar Index Futures Consider 109 Target Achieved, New Pattern Emerging

  • Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 111.30

Technicals

  • Primary resistance is 111.30

  • Primary pattern objective is 107.75

  • Acceptance below 109 next pattern confirmation

  • Acceptance above 111.50 opens a test of 112.20

  • 20 Day VWAP bearish , 5 Day VWAP bearish

Notes

  • US CPI released tomorrow, volatility expected around the print

  • Goldman Sachs expect 'a below-consensus 0.44% increase in core CPI in October (vs. 0.5% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 6.46% (vs. 6.5% consensus). We expect moderate increases in both food and energy prices to raise headline CPI by 0.49% (vs. 0.6% consensus), which would lower the year-on-year rate to 7.8% (vs. 7.9% consensus)'

  • Going forward Goldman 'expect monthly core CPI inflation to remain in the 0.3-0.4% range for the next couple of months before edging down to 0.2-0.3% next year. We forecast year-over-year core CPI inflation of 6.2% in December 2022, 3.3% in December 2023, and 2.7% in December 2024. The deceleration we expect in 2023 is driven more by goods than services categories'