In today’s European session, the EUR/USD pair finds itself teetering near the crucial support level of 1.0800, despite Eurozone inflation data exhibiting resilience beyond market expectations. Eurostat’s report reveals that the preliminary HICP for February increased by 2.6%, surpassing the anticipated 2.5%. However, this growth represents a deceleration from January’s 2.8%. 

The monthly HICP also showcased robust growth, expanding by 0.6% after contracting by 0.4% in January. Notably, the annual Core HICP, excluding volatile components such as food and oil prices, accelerated to 3.1%, surpassing economists’ expectations of 2.9%. Despite this, it marked a slight decline from January’s 3.3%. 

These figures underscore a persistent deceleration in Eurozone inflation, albeit at a pace slightly higher than forecasted. The sluggish progress toward the European Central Bank’s 2% target inflation rate may delay market expectations of interest-rate cuts, potentially impacting the June policy meeting. 

Conversely, the US Dollar has stabilized above 104.00 following a vigorous recovery, buoyed by expectations of a decline in the United States Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for January. This anticipation has tempered market speculation regarding rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) during the June policy meeting.

Investor attention shifts towards the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for February, with expectations set at 49.5, slightly higher than the prior reading of 49.1. Moreover, the surge in Gold prices (XAU/USD) above $2,040 indicates persistent expectations of rate cuts, fueled by the release of the United States core PCE data for January.

Although the annual US core inflation data slowed to 2.8%, the lowest in three years, the impact on rate cut expectations was mitigated by a 0.4% month-on-month increase. Despite the moderate deceleration in price pressures, investor sentiment regarding rate cuts remains unchanged leading up to the June meeting.

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress and labor market data for February. These events will offer crucial insights into the interest rate outlook, potentially influencing market sentiment surrounding the EUR/USD pair and other asset classes. As economic indicators continue to shape market expectations, caution and strategic positioning remain paramount for investors navigating these uncertain times.