The EURUSD rate attempts to extend its rally as weak US macroeconomic data puts pressure on the dollar. The current quote is 1.1574. Find out more in our analysis for 5 August 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have increased, with traders pricing in an 80% chance of policy easing in December
- The July US jobs report raised market concerns, but the Fed continues to stress labour market resilience and gradual cooling
- EURUSD forecast for 5 August 2025: 1.1375
Fundamental analysis
The EURUSD rate resumed its decline after a failed attempt to break above the 1.1590 resistance level. The sharp spike on the back of weak US labour market data has not changed the broader picture, with the euro remaining under bearish pressure. Heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have not provided meaningful support to the bulls either. Traders now estimate the likelihood of policy easing in December at 80%, signalling a 25-basis-point cut possibly starting as early as September.
The July US jobs report triggered concern in the markets. However, Fed officials claim that the labour market remains resilient and point to only a gradual cooling based on the latest statistics. Against this backdrop, the EURUSD pair continues to edge lower.
Market participants now shift their attention to upcoming releases, including June’s trade data and the ISM services PMI, which could help clarify US economic prospects and guide further EURUSD direction.
EURUSD technical analysis
The EURUSD rate continues its downward move after rebounding from the strong 1.1590 resistance level, reflecting growing selling pressure. The pair has settled below the nearest 1.1555 support level, limiting short-term recovery potential.
Today’s EURUSD forecast suggests a decline towards 1.1375. The Stochastic Oscillator confirms the downside risk: its signal lines have reversed from the overbought area, indicating weakening bullish momentum.
A breakout below the 1.1475 support level, with the price consolidating below the lower boundary of the ascending corrective channel, would confirm the bearish scenario.
Summary
The EURUSD pair maintains its bearish momentum, with further downside likely amid monetary policy expectations and signs of resilience in the US economy. EURUSD technical analysis supports the bearish outlook, with a potential move towards 1.1375 if the 1.1475 support level breaks.
Source: Roboforex
