The GBPUSD pair dipped to 1.3357 on Wednesday as weak PMI data and a strong US dollar pressured the pound. Discover more in our analysis for 30 July 2025.
GBPUSD forecast: key trading points
- The GBPUSD pair fell to a two-month low due to disappointing UK PMI data and a strong US dollar
- Markets expect the Bank of England to cut interest cuts twice before the end of the year
- GBPUSD forecast for 30 July 2025: 1.3250
Fundamental analysis
The GBPUSD rate plunged to 1.3357 midweek, hitting its lowest level since 20 May 2025. The decline was driven by weak UK macroeconomic data and stronger demand for the US dollar – supported by trade developments.
Despite warmer weather boosting food sales, the overall economic momentum remains weak, with the earlier PMIs coming in below expectations.
As a result, expectations have grown that the Bank of England could lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points in August and make another cut before the end of the year. The central bank shifts its focus from fighting inflation to supporting growth.
Meanwhile, the US dollar strengthened following the announcement of a US-EU trade deal, which introduced a 15% tariff on most European exports, including vehicles.
The agreement, announced by US President Donald Trump and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, eased fears of an escalating trade war ahead of the previously set deadline. This further supported the US dollar.
The GBPUSD forecast is bearish.
GBPUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the GBPUSD pair remains under pressure, trading in a downtrend. After failing to consolidate above 1.3589, the pair reversed and reached a local low around 1.3300 by 30 July – its lowest level since the start of the month.
The price has tested the lower Bollinger Band several times, indicating oversold conditions. Candlesticks with long lower wicks have begun to form near the 1.3300 support level, possibly hinting at a local rebound attempt.
The intermediate resistance level lies at 1.3453. If the pair begins to recover, it could test this mark. However, a breakout below the 1.3300 support level would increase the risk of further losses towards 1.3250 and beyond.
The technical outlook favours the bears, although a short-term correction remains possible due to upcoming decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.
Summary
The GBPUSD pair has fallen to its lowest since 20 May and appears weak. There may be some scope for a correction, but not necessarily immediately. The GBPUSD forecast for today, 30 July 2025, does not rule out further declines towards 1.3250.
Source: Roboforex
