The GBPUSD pair retreated to 1.3461 midweek. Market focus is on Fed independence concerns and the Bank of England’s strategy. Discover more in our analysis for 27 August 2025.
GBPUSD forecast: key trading points
- The GBPUSD pair corrected after its rally in early August as doubts over US monetary policy resurfaced
- The market is watching the foundations for potential BoE rate decisions
- GBPUSD forecast for 27 August 2025: 1.3432
Fundamental analysis
On Wednesday, the GBPUSD rate fell to 1.3461. Pressure on US short-term yields and threats to Fed independence created a negative backdrop for the US dollar, supporting the outlook for its weakening over the coming year.
The decisive risk factor will be who Donald Trump nominates to replace the vacant Fed Governor seat, which will determine the extent of political influence over monetary policy.
Investors are also closely watching developments in France, where the minority government faces a possible dismissal next month.
Meanwhile, UK retail price growth in August reached its highest level since March last year, adding to the Bank of England’s concerns about persistent inflation. At the same time, money markets no longer expect a BoE rate cut before April 2026.
The GBPUSD forecast is mixed.
GBPUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the GBPUSD pair is seen correcting after its rally in early August. The pound strengthened strongly at the start of the month, breaking above several resistance levels to reach the 1.3545-1.3560 area. However, momentum faded, and the pair shifted into a downward phase, correcting towards the 1.3432 support level. The decline bottomed at 1.3387, from where a local rebound began.
Currently, the GBPUSD pair is trading between resistance at 1.3545 and support at 1.3432. Bollinger Bands are narrowing, reflecting reduced volatility and market preparation for a fresh move.
Key trader levels are resistance at 1.3545 and support levels at 1.3432 and 1.3387. A breakout of either will set the direction for the coming sessions.
Summary
The GBPUSD pair fell in response to data and ongoing doubts over Fed and BoE actions. The GBPUSD forecast for today, 27 August 2025, suggests further decline towards 1.3432.
Source: Roboforex