Amid fundamental data from the US and the eurozone, the EURUSD rate may form a corrective wave towards 1.1675. Find out more in our analysis for 14 August 2025.
EURUSD forecast: key trading points
- Eurozone Q2 GDP: previously at 0.6%, projected at 0.1%
- US initial jobless claims: previously at 226 thousand, projected at 225 thousand
- EURUSD forecast for 14 August 2025: 1.1675 and 1.1780
Fundamental analysis
GDP is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country; it applies only to final products and does not include the cost of raw materials.
The EURUSD forecast for today assumes that the eurozone’s GDP may drop to 0.1%. In the previous quarter, the figure stood at 0.6%, and if the actual value in the current reporting period meets or falls below the forecast, this may negatively impact the euro and trigger a correction in the EURUSD rate.
US initial jobless claims represent the number of people who claimed unemployment benefits for the first time during the previous week. This indicator measures the labour market climate, with an increase in initial jobless claims indicating rising unemployment.
The previous reading was 226 thousand, while the forecast for 14 August 2025 suggests a slight decrease to 225 thousand. The change is minor, but actual data deviating from the forecast, combined with other US fundamentals, could add to pressure on the USD.
EURUSD technical analysis
On the H4 chart, the EURUSD pair formed a Shooting Star reversal pattern near the upper Bollinger Band. At this stage, it may develop a corrective wave following the pattern’s signal. Given that the pair has surged sharply, a pullback towards the nearest support level at 1.1675 is possible. A rebound from this support could pave the way for a continued upward movement.
However, there is an alternative scenario, where the EURUSD rate could move higher towards 1.1780 without testing the support level.
Summary
The EURUSD forecast for today favours the euro. Despite a potential drop in eurozone GDP, technical analysis suggests only a minor correction towards the 1.1675 support level, followed by a continuation of the uptrend. The next upside target could be the 1.1780 USD resistance level.
Source: Roboforex