XAUUSD prices are moderately declining after a strong rally and a new all-time high at 3,578 USD. Today, the market focus is on US employment data from ADP. Find more details in our analysis for 4 September 2025.
XAUUSD forecast: key trading points
- Market focus: US ADP employment data to be released today
- Current trend: uptrend remains intact
- XAUUSD forecast for 4 September 2025: 3,578 or 3,500
Fundamental analysis
XAUUSD quotes fell to around 3,520 USD per ounce on Tuesday, ending a record rally and the longest winning streak since March, as investors await key US labour market data.
Nevertheless, gold prices remain close to record highs, supported by strong safe-haven demand and expectations of Federal Reserve monetary easing.
Today, the market focus will be on employment statistics from Automatic Data Processing Inc. (ADP) for August. The figure is expected to be at 74 thousand after 104 thousand in July. A stronger-than-expected reading would support the US dollar, while a weaker figure would pressure the US currency, pushing gold higher.
XAUUSD technical analysis
XAUUSD prices show a sharp rally on the daily chart, hitting a new all-time high at 3,578 USD. The Alligator indicator is also confidently trending upwards, suggesting the potential for continued bullish movement after a minor correction.
The short-term XAUUSD forecast suggests further growth towards the 3,578 USD high and beyond if bulls maintain their current momentum. However, if bears push quotes below 3,500 USD, a decline towards the 3,450 USD support level is possible.
Summary
Gold is moderately correcting after a sharp rally and a new all-time high at 3,578 USD. Today, US ADP employment data could add volatility to gold’s price dynamics.
Source: Roboforex